Dean Rohrer

¿La catarsis de Grecia?

ATENAS – Las elecciones del domingo en Grecia decidirán si se recurrirá a la confrontación o a la negociación para cambiar las condiciones del acuerdo de refinanciación de Grecia con la zona del euro. En lugar de ayudar a Grecia a superar su crisis, las políticas de austeridad aplicadas desde mayo de 2010 la han hundido en una profunda recesión que perpetúa los déficits fiscales y agrava la incertidumbre financiera.

Cada vez resulta más claro que, si Grecia adopta medidas unilaterales –ya sea la de derogar las impopulares leyes sobre la austeridad o la de renunciar al propio acuerdo sobre préstamos–, la zona del euro suspenderá el desembolso del préstamo. Al Gobierno le resultará imposible cumplir con obligaciones básicas, como el pago de los salarios y las pensiones, y el país suspenderá pagos oficialmente. Los bancos internacionales dejarán de financiar las empresas griegas, incluidas las importaciones, con lo que habrá escasez de combustibles, alimentos y medicinas. Al desplomarse la confianza en que Grecia permanecerá en la zona del euro, una retirada súbita y en masa de depósitos hará que el sistema bancario –y, en su momento, la economía real– se hunda.

El paso siguiente será la salida forzosa del euro y la reintroducción del dracma, que entrañará una dramática reducción del nivel de vida, debida en parte a la inmediata devaluación de la nueva divisa y a la elevada inflación. Entretanto, los beneficios en cuanto a competitividad serán muy limitados, en vista de la escasa base exportadora, y se evaporarán en un círculo vicioso de devaluaciones y tipos de interés en aumento.

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