Greek Parliament Dimitrios Sotiriou/ZumaPress

Ein New Deal für übermäßige Schulden?

CAMBRIDGE – Das Eingeständnis des Internationalen Währungsfonds, dass die Schulden Griechenlands nicht aufrecht zu erhalten sind, könnte sich als entscheidender Moment für das weltweite Finanzsystem erweisen. Heterodoxe Maßnahmen für den Umgang mit hohen Schuldenlasten müssen auf jeden Fall ernster genommen werden, sogar in einigen Industriestaaten.

Bereits seit Beginn der griechischen Krise gibt es drei grundlegend verschiedene Gedankenansätze: Erstens ist da die Ansicht der sogenannten Troika (der Europäischen Kommission, der Europäischen Zentralbank und des IWF), die schuldengeplagte Peripherie der Eurozone (Griechenland, Irland, Portugal und Spanien) benötige starke politische Disziplin, damit verhindert wird, dass sich eine kurzfristige Liquiditätskrise in ein langfristiges Insolvenzproblem verwandelt.

Die orthodoxen Maßnahmen dagegen bestanden darin, diesen Ländern konventionelle Überbrückungskredite zu geben, um ihnen dadurch Zeit zu verschaffen, ihre Haushaltsprobleme zu lösen und Strukturreformen zur Verbesserung ihres langfristigen Wachstumspotenzials einzuführen. In Spanien, Irland und Portugal hat dieser Ansatz „funktioniert“, aber um den Preis einer massiven Rezession. Darüber hinaus besteht ein hohes Risiko, im Fall eines deutlichen Rückgangs der Weltwirtschaft wieder abzustürzen. Die griechische Wirtschaft allerdings konnte durch die Troika nicht stabilisiert werden, ganz zu schweigen von einer Wiederbelebung.

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