Grecia y los límites de la oposición a la austeridad

CAMBRIDGE – ¿Está muerto el plan de austeridad? En la cumbre del G8 del mes pasado en Campo David el programa de austeridad dirigido por Alemania se enfrentó con una fuerte resistencia. Del mismo modo, las recientes elecciones presidenciales en Francia respaldaron a aquellos que señalan que Europa debe crecer para aliviar la elevada deuda de su sector público en lugar de buscar inmediatamente una disciplina fiscal ortodoxa. Además, la reciente victoria del partido griego de centro derecha, Nueva Democracia, que es partidario de cumplir los términos del rescate del país, no garantiza la posibilidad de formar un gobierno de mayoría.

En contraste, desde la crisis financiera de 2007-2009, los Estados Unidos han emprendido políticas macroeconómicas expansivas orientadas al crecimiento, a pesar de déficit presupuestales masivos. Hasta ahora, a juzgar por la modesta recuperación en los Estados Unidos frente a la no recuperación en Europa, los ajustes en la política estadounidense están funcionando mejor que el programa de austeridad europeo.

Sin embargo, no se trata simplemente de elegir entre las medidas expansivas y programas de austeridad. Las políticas macroeconómicas interactúan sutil pero poderosamente aunque rara  vez con  notoriedad con realidades microeconómicas cotidianas. Llanamente, la estructura microeconómica de Europa hace que las mismas políticas macroeconómicas basadas en el crecimiento sean menos efectivas en la Unión Europea que en los Estados Unidos.

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