Comments 30

Bienvenidos al siglo XXI

Feb 1, 2016 Joschka Fischer

BERLÍN – El inicio de 2016 fue de todo menos calmo. La caída de las bolsas en China desestabilizó los mercados de todo el mundo. Las economías emergentes parecen paralizadas. El precio del petróleo se derrumbó y puso en crisis a los productores. Corea del Norte exhibe su poder nuclear. Y en Europa, la crisis de los refugiados fomenta una ola tóxica de nacionalismo, que amenaza con despedazar a la Unión Europea. Sumemos las ambiciones neoimperiales de Rusia y la amenaza del terrorismo islámico, y lo único que faltaría para completar la descripción de un año con visos de maldición profética sería que aparezca un cometa en el cielo.

Allí donde uno mire verá caos creciente. Parece que el orden internacional que se forjó en la fragua del siglo XX se está acabando, y todavía no tenemos ni el menor atisbo de lo que vendrá a reemplazarlo.

Los desafíos a los que nos enfrentamos son bien conocidos: globalización, digitalización, cambio climático, etc. Lo que no está claro es el contexto en el que surgirá la respuesta (si es que surge). ¿En qué estructuras políticas, por iniciativa de quién y según qué reglas se negociarán (o dirimirán por la fuerza, si negociar fuera imposible) estas cuestiones?

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Joschka Fischer

Writing for PS since 2006
148 Commentaries

Joschka Fischer was German Foreign Minister and Vice Chancellor from 1998-2005, a term marked by Germany's strong support for NATO's intervention in Kosovo in 1999, followed by its opposition to the war in Iraq. Fischer entered electoral politics after participating in the anti-establishment protests of the 1960s and 1970s, and played a key role in founding Germany's Green Party, which he led for almost two decades.

0 Comments on this paragraph, 39 in all 39 Comments on this article

jean nutson Oct 12, 2016

Terrorism+ global economic crises + climate change(natural disasters)+ diseases+conflicts = doom to humanity these trends show no sign of abating or slowing down but on the contrary seem to be on the ascendancy pointing to the fact that the human race is very much likely to be greatly reduced to the barest minimum and at the fastest pace as never before in the human history, to the hardcore scientist this is just the natural application of Darwin's law of natural selection and the survival of the fittest. Doom to humanity.!!!
Ramah Khalil Feb 16, 2016

Thanks Mr.Fischer for your insightfl article that is highlighting the worse issues we are living on nowadays. However, much works needed in term of political decisions as these challanges more related to the policy makers. Working collaboratively is the only way for our unprediced future. Global stategies should be revised and applied effectively.
Lawrence Michael Feb 9, 2016

Let us look at what the article suggests: French Enlightenment values & Germany's Angela Merkel. While they both (French Enlightenment values couldn't be more obscure ) ostensibly travel in the womb of a US hegemony that definitely isn't Enlightened nor sees Angela Merkel as the pivot around which the world runs. Fallacious since it simply delegitimizes Germany even if the author would not cite Merkel's Christian Democrats as open to the basic Enlightenment question of meanings. Both Christian as well as democrat. Apart the usage of the word hegemon with reference to the US - the article barely does any justice to the millions of hapless babes suddenly having opened their eyes to the woods around them and shrieking for momma to take them home. That is what the article suggests though their journey through the safety of their houses into the sprawling woods is barely recorded. The author correctly captures a pragmatic Chinese approach but misreads the simple missionary zeal of two West Asian religions - Christianity & Islam fighting for a global dominance and nothing more. No matter how well their Hindu serfs slurp and whine or even snarl. Superimposed upon this is the idea of a liberal order. That superimposition and it's need is what engages the world. Even as the US could embark upon a suicidal re-asserting it's hegemonic status that is read as liberal here. The scrutiny is whether the superimposition speaks or the underlying trashy medievalism is the driver - since the superimposition is so only for some. Itself being the substance most seek to build their worlds upon. Extricating the liberal order from what it has been superimposed upon may as well prove the task for most in the worlds of the ironies noted - with or without their Indian serfs whining, slurping or even snarling. The others, as the author notes, will remain minding their first tasks and ensuring that the conditions necessary for doing so remain unviolated. For academic interest - the liberal order blending in with the notion of partnerships-of-Equals envisaged in a multi-nodal world is what may propel the 21st Century. Or Cosmopolitan 21st.
Tuan Nguyen Feb 8, 2016

The European Commissioners in Brussel have turned the Union into an uncaring financial fascist corporation, overwhelming democracy, driving individual nation into economic ruin, for the benefits of private banks and oligarchs. I guess it's reckoning time.
Joel Dubow Feb 8, 2016

Chancellor Fischer has the cart before the horse on a number of topics. Many present day critics of the establishment point to failures of understanding and leadership as the cause of problems. In a short post one must be concise, so I'll focus on the German relevant refugee crisis.

Critics of Merkel's policy question its basis. It seems inconsistent with history and human nature to provide unconditional acceptance of refugees. Traditionally refugees were grateful for the refuge and were willing to pledge loyalty and respect to the nation providing refuge. I've had heated debates on European forum and ezine discussions whereby I was denounced for asserting that, if Muslims refused to allow criticism of their religion that they are therefore shouldn't be criticizing others. A suggestion that refugees should accept the standards of the host country and not disrespect its language and culture was met with shocked derision. A host country is just that, a country, it isn't a refugees parent showering them with unconditional love. It is the left that is unrealistic and disrespectful of citizens that is the source of opposition and not "populists and (mistakenly labelled) ignorant people"
Thomas Kruemmer Feb 8, 2016

There is no need to spread fear, uncertainty and doubt. There is no evidence at all that the US should be retiring from the world stage. The author's assessment of China is faulty, as it fails in realizing the near complete disconnect of Chinese stockmarkets with China's economy and the lack of relevance of Chinese stockmarkets to the world economy, other than psychologically owing to young, inexperienced analysts. But worst is the author's assessment of China's foreign policy, he misses the even most basic fundamentals, because he does not make a difference between what China says and what China does. Dominant foreign policy is a core objective of China, far beyond it's immediate neighbours. While ostentively making non-interference in internal affairs of other countries a foreign policy principle, China actually interferes in internal affairs of countries of interest as much as it can, currently by means of its state-owned industries. China actually does aspire to the current dominating role of the US, with or without soft power.
Talal Serhan Feb 7, 2016

When the Mongols started building their huge empire, they certainly did not have / need soft power. Later, they got soft power when they were absorbed by the Arabic culture in Iraq and Syria and finally converted to Islam. There is no doubt, China has the necessary scientific, industrial, military, wealth and population density to be a very probable replacement for the USA.
The rising conflict between Russia and NATO may continue and finally weaken both enough to make it easy for china to be the balancing power and later the hegemonic one.
When the Mongols marched west they were stopped at the borders of Egypt. Nowadays, such barrier is not available, the middle east is torn apart and devastated, largely, due to western acts and plots. In fact, china may get some sort of support, if it knows how to make use of the huge amount of hatred in the region against the west.
Vidvuds Beldavs Feb 7, 2016

Excellent essay! President Obama has been addressing the challenge with courage and vigor by encouraging regional actors to assume greater responsibility for the security of their neighborhood. This "leading from behind" strategy would work well were it not for leaders like President Putin of Russia who seeing the potential for the international system collapse under multiple pressure is doing his best to try to bring about such a collapse forecast by advisors such as Dugin. Incessant propaganda against Angela Merkel and EU efforts to deal with the crisis originates in Russia blaming her for the refugee crisis exploiting the worst fears. This is echoed in all the languages of Europe by right wing extremists who see the possibility of chaos as an opportunity to seize power.
In the absence of responsible actions by Russia the burden falls on the EU, China and others to work in concert to make the international system more resilient rather than less. The terrorism that arose in Afghanistan could have been contained and defeated in Afghanistan had it not been for the tragic fiasco of the invasion of Iraq. President Obama's policies are gradually working and regional powers are beginning to step up to the bar to help Afghanistan to secure its security. A regional resolution is possible in Syria if the key outside powers - particularly Russia, committed themselves to a political resolution. Unfortunately, Russia is pursuing the illusion of military victory and seeking to exploit the chaos for the maximum to erode the international system and thereby end the dominance of the US. Whatever improvement in the quality of life of the Russian people has come about since 1998 has been through its increased participation in the international system. This enabled Russia to benefit from the extraordinary increase in oil prices. Mr. Putin blames the US and even President Obama for bad things that have happened to Russia. Mr. Putin's failure to reform the Russian economy is his own, not President Obama's.
While the situation is fraught with dangers Europeans are increasingly rising to the challenge and emerging as a strong partner of the US in strengthening the international order. When China becomes fully committed to this goal rather than attempt to extract the maximum advantage from the changes that lie ahead a more resilient international system can emerge. The wild card is the unpredictable Vladimir Putin.
- Gerhard Frühmann Feb 14, 2016
  
  well said!
d clark Feb 7, 2016

In fact, America’s abdication has been voluntary. Obama’s eight-year-long abdication strategy has been, “Let’s be nice, and humble too. No matter the harm to America.” Just a couple of examples. Under Obama, all U.S. troops have not been removed from the adult EU. Why? He gave Iran the role of America's lead negotiator. Why? At home and abroad, he has depreciated the country of which he is president. Why? Obama is the Great Confessor of American sins, be they sins or not. Read his book, “Dreams of My Father”, mostly about his drifting around a Chicago community as a community organizer. His assigned community received what is now Obama’s guidance for the world--Work it out for yourselves, we will give you plenty of room to do so. Local strategy and World strategy are not yet the same.
Taavo Savik Feb 3, 2016

Joschka is right Pax Americana has much more complex issue. And fading of it has much bigger consequences even those we don't associste today to fading influence of World power. But discussion about European Union is wrong. Today European Union is living similar times as Soviet Union in 1988-89. of course there are remarkable differnces as well. Surely allready today we need to recognize we all have been too idealistic about prospect of our common society.
Álvaro Athayde Feb 3, 2016

The current geopolitical issue of the Mediterranean and its margins – Anatolia, Europe, Maghreb and Mashreq – is a population and wealth imbalance problem:
(1)
The South and the East young and poor, the North and the West old and rich.
(2)
The old and rich want the young and poor people to work for them and they want to work, but the first want not to pay too much nor, especially, want to be disturbed in their habits or questioned in their certainties.
(3)
This gave rise to the birth of large communities of metics, some kipped with foreign status (the typical case is that of Germany), others with the status of citizens but without recognized political majority (the typical case is that of France).
(4)
Both populations, the young and poor and old and rich, belong to the same Euro-Mediterranean Civilization, share the same Cultural Heritage (Abrahamic, Hellenistic, Roman) and have the same ancestry (are descendants of Noah, by Ham, Japheth and Shem) but many of the elements of the old and rich people despise and fear the elements of the young and poor.
(5)
The problem is structural, long-lasting and most often is not even recognized.
- Álvaro Athayde Feb 4, 2016
  
  @Steve
  
  Stupidity is a good hypothesis, dear Steve, greed and arrogance also are, but none solves the problem.
  
  Southern people aspire to have a level of life similar to that of Northern people and move in search of it. And the Northern businesses need the workforce of Southern people. It could be a win-win game.
  
  But to be a win-win game mutual knowledge and mutual understanding is a MUST, ignorance and preconceived ideas are mortal.
- Steve Hurst Feb 3, 2016
  
  @Avaro
  
  Hi Alvaro. I dont know about wealth but I do know about stupidity
  
  I'll let Frank Zappa answer you -
  'Some scientists claim that hydrogen, because it is so plentiful, is the basic building block of the universe. I dispute that. I say there is more stupidity than hydrogen, and that is the basic building block of the universe.'
  There seems to be a lot of stupidy about in the EU and like most 'systems' stupidity will break it. There is a thing called 'good husbandry', sadly lacking in many places. Good husbandry is very simple its not doing stupid things
  
  As far as communism goes Frank Z also had it right - 'Communism doesnt work because people like owning stuff' also known as consumerism
  
  It wasnt the West's technology that broke Soviet Russia, it was the Soviet Russian stupidity. Economic suicide by stupidity
  
  Perhaps the same is occurring in the EU
- Álvaro Athayde Feb 3, 2016
  
  As I hope you know, dear Steve Hurst, wealth, that was the big argument of the “West” in the Cold War (our system is better than yours and our system won), remains being the great argument of the “West” in current the Global War.
  
  But the system has particular features, features which have been described by John Kenneth Galbraith in "The Culture of contentment" (1992), features that can no more be ignored, either in Central, Northern and Western Europe or in the USA.
  
  It is true that politicians of Southern European States have made much nonsense (Portuguese politicians certainly made immense and continue doing), but the problem is systemic: If the Northern European States had overpopulation, as they had in the Nineteenth Century, and if they were rich and militarily powerful, as they were in the Nineteenth Century, they would not face the problems that they face today.
- Steve Hurst Feb 3, 2016
  
  @Alvaro
  
  The S and E EU have created their own problems. They were not forced to join the debt machine that is the eurozone. Spain was not forced to build more property than the rest of the EU put together during its speculative building frenzy. These countries where not forced to play it large with expenditure and stupid expenditure, facilities with no use, roads going nowhere and ghost towns of new property. Sports facilities delerict after short term use in Greece. Procrastination on labour reforms and pension reforms with aging demographics
  
  The S and E need to question their politicians who constructed their current predicament and the voters who voted for them, because they were elected on majority vote, a small point that is often missed
  
  There has been neverending grant support and transfer of manufacturing activity from the N to S - from condiments to cars. Transfer cannot be neverending, except within the eurozone where it has to be neverending for the eurozone to function.
  
  The problem is both the S and the N eurozone dear leaders never bothered to tell N eurozone voters that had to happen. As the N EZ voters are blocking automatic transfers the only longterm answer is the growth of S and E EZ local debt, as surely as continents drift the debt will grow
Curtis Carpenter Feb 2, 2016

The "reply" buttons don't appear to be working. Sorry.
- Splinter Knight Feb 2, 2016
  
  Hi Curtis,
  Thanks for pointing out this issue. The "reply" button does work (click "reply," type your comment into the comment field, and click post and you should see your comment appear as a reply), but it's certainly not easy for readers to see that. We'll look into an update so that it's more intuitive. In the meantime, thanks for reading and pointing out this issue.
  Best,
  Splinter (Digital Editor here)
Curtis Carpenter Feb 2, 2016

The West has bought into the economic paradigm completely, and that is no basis for any sort of claim to "rationality."
Curtis Carpenter Feb 2, 2016

Do you really believe, Mr. Schneider, that things can't get a whole lot worse?
Cam Jennings Feb 2, 2016

Joschka Fischer thank you for your informative and well written. Throughout the article there are references to America being a hegemonic power which is not in dispute. According to Amy Chua in her book Day of Empire every hyperpower in history has had the two challenges of maintaining the tolerance that fueled its rise and forging common bonds capable of securing the loyalty or at least quiescence of the people it dominates.

I would like to dispute a specific point that America has really only been a hegemon for less than three decades. The world is now mulitpolar and I agree that the main challenge is managing the declining American influence. As
Zbigniew Brzezinski states in his book Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power, America has only had this role since 1991. To validate what you have said in your article Brzezinski states the following.
"In brief, the crisis of global power is the cumulative
consequence of the dynamic shift in the world’s
center of gravity from the West to the East, of the
accelerated surfacing of the restless phenomenon of
global political awakening, and of America’s
deficient domestic and international performance
since its emergence by 1990 as the world’s only
superpower".

China has made it clear that is wants to dominate but not take on the same role that America has assumed(whether it is since the end of WWII or since 1991). This is the Asian Century and whilst I agree with your points about the P.R.C. they will become eventually the hegemonic power.

If the West is capable of removing the denial about systemic flaws and making the necessary reforms that are required within the E.U. and U.S.A. then there is a possibility that there will be reforms to the U.N. and a better chance of the retention of manageable global stability.

I suppose it is a matter of understanding that the welfare of man is in a state of eternal conflict and working with what we have as you have stated "Only through conflict are the new pillars, institutions, and players of a new order established".
j. von Hettlingen Feb 2, 2016

Joschka Fischer fears the future looks bleak for the 21st century, saying the year 2016 started where 2015 ended - doom and gloom. Shall we share his pessimism? I wouldn't. History is full of turbulent times. Besides, we ought to have more faith in our resilience. For the moment Europe is engulfed by crises. But history has taught us that it is always the last straw that compels people to pull themselves together. Indeed, "only through conflict are the new pillars, institutions, and players of a new order established."
However the 21st century couldn't have began more ominously than with the 9/11 attacks, which had scarred the West, and questioned the validity of the Pax Americana. This international world order imposed by the US since World War II had "ensured a large degree of global stability." In retaliation to the 9/11 attacks the two wars launched by George W. Bush hadn't helped counter the threat of terror, on the contrary they had undermined America's international standing. Despite the trillions of dollars squandered in Iraq and Afghanistan, stability has not returned to the region, and Islamist terrorism has spread across the globe.
According to Fischer, the current global order "has begun to fray" because the US, despite its uncontested hegemony, "is no longer able or willing to play the role of the world’s policeman or make the sacrifices needed to guarantee order." While the US in the coming years may be focusing on "managing /its/ declining influence," Fischer says, "there is no framework to replace it. In fact he sees no country that is capable of doing so, although a resurgent Russia and a rising China had vowed to defy the US. But what are their chances of toppling the Pax Americana?
Russia is seen as a revisionist power, that harbours "neo-imperial ambitions" in its backyard - Eastern Europe, Central Asia and south of the Caucasus. Yet it will hardly be a global hegemon. China is the world's second largest economy and has become a global power. With its big cash pile Beijing has invested heavily in military, allowing it to acquire "hard power." Yet in the realm of "soft power" China has a long way to go. Even though Chinese and Russians lambast the US, with Muslims decrying the decadence of American culture, they still enjoy the benefits of American technology and fashion. In Russia, China and across the Middle East, young people are seen using mobile phones, and wearing jeans and T-shirts.
For ordinary people in Europe it is not America's declining "global hegemony" and geopolitical conflicts that preocupy their minds, it is the economy. The global financial crisis in 2008 and the bailout dramas in the Eurozone had hit them badly. Europe's babyboomers are used to a high living standard, thanks to economic growth in the north or government spending in the south, that supported the welfare system. Now they see their economic interests at stake, and become emotional. External factors, such as an uncontrollable influx of migrants have galvanised support for populist parties, which blame their governments for being unable to tend to domestic problems - high unemployment and shrinking incomes. It is the case in the in/out referendum on Britain's EU membership. The refugee crisis reflects the fear of many Europeans, who see migrants as a threat to their livelihoods, welfare system and social stability. People get less upset about Russia's aggression in Ukraine, as Europe imported much of its oil and gas from Russia. Issues like "globalization, digitization, climate change" pose a threat to those, who have become victims of these movements.
Fischer sees Europe's future in danger with the "decline of Pax Americana, which has served for seven decades as a guarantor" of peace and stability. He fears the rise of "neo-nationalism" would derail "Europe's internal liberal order." This would mean a "suicide" for the continent. He asks: "What will happen if German Chancellor Angela Merkel is brought down by her refugee policy, if the United Kingdom leaves the European Union, or if the French populist Marine Le Pen captures the presidency? A plunge into the abyss is the most dangerous outcome imaginable, if not the likeliest." He should bear in mind that the majority of us, Europeans are still rational players.
- Cam Jennings Feb 2, 2016
  
  Whilst I am not going to disagree with what you have said I will disagree that Europeans are still rational players and that Europe will remain stable and unaffected by the changing global order. Would you not agree that Europe is part of the West ? This is the Asian Century and for most in the West their inability to understand a bigger picture prevents them from being a united focused group who can bring about the necessary reforms that are required for the continuance of the type of global stability that we have been accustomed to over the past decades.
Owan Skirlan Feb 2, 2016

gaaga awaits for herr fischer, isn't it?
Florian Pantazi Feb 2, 2016

I am glad to see that you have stopped labeling EU's nationalist leaders as "fascists", this is indeed significant... As for the rest, reducing the extremely complicated issue of hegemonic transition to the closing of ranks in defense of Western liberal order and, implicitly, of Merkel's administration of Europe is an exercise in futility.

The fact that the Western liberal model has failed to inspire a great number of electoral democracies is by no means an accident. Such a model leads to the atomization of society and the ultimate destruction of social fabric. No wonder many a politician from Central Europe, outside Germany, is hard at work in adopting policies meant to counteract such destructive trends.
Jose araujo Feb 2, 2016

Joschka, its not suicide its euthanasia.

Strange you put Merkle on the side of the Pro EU, when she was the main responsible for the disintegration of the EU.

Then end of a social democrat or christian democrat continent started with the German positions. So don't blame the rest of Europe if we don't want to be part of the Reich. Better alone then with a bad company....
Niklas Monrad Feb 2, 2016

What happened? We simply ran out of money. Up to our noses in debt and only getting air trough the two straws of QE and negative interest rates. You can't really do much when you have to constantly focus on being able to breathe ...
Henry Rech Feb 2, 2016

The theme song from "Mash" - "Suicide is Painless" - says it all:

The game of life is hard to play
I'm gonna lose it anyway
The losing card I'll someday lay
So this is all I have to say

That suicide is painless
It brings on many changes
And I can take or leave it if I please.
Christoph Trautwein Feb 1, 2016

What an easy wold it was when we had the east, the west and ROW. Now the blocks disintegrated leading to many smaller but in the sum significant conflicts. But this phase will end as well. First we had a global economy. Goods travel freely around the globe. Now people do the same. Borders get unmanageable. The concept of countries with borders is no solution any more. Where are new new concepts? Where is the youth with revolutionary ideas? I hope we will look back at the current time as a orientation phase to a new era.
Peter Schneider Feb 1, 2016

The biggest challenge we as Europeans face at the moment, I would say, is the intellectual bankruptcy of our own elites. Their economic experiments (monetary union without political union), their strategic experiments (borders without control), their mulitcultural experiments ("refugees" welcome, relativization of our own cultural values), their social experiments (diversity, laissez-faire) have all failed and now we find ourselves in a situation of chaos in which the rule of law is suspended, in which the societies are deeply divided and in which our own culture is under attack. We find ourselves defenseless. We find our elites either clueless like Goethe's "Sorcerer's Apprentice" or fatalistic like Houellebecq's protagonists, we find them looking for scapegoats (American inactivity, globalization, climate change, and so forth) - but the truth they try to avoid at any cost is that they themselves have destabilized Europe.

Of course, to a certain extent, we, the people, the civil society, have failed as well when we let them go ahead, when we believed the propaganda in their newspapers or broadcasting corporations, when we ignored warnings, when we let them bribe us with future generations' money, when we voted for their parties, when we let them destroy the educational systems. Yes, we let them corrupt us. But the question is, e. g. when we were told that the euro would cost us nothing, could we have known back then that we now have to guarantee with our own bank deposits and with our own pension savings for instable foreign banking systems and corrupt foreign governments? It would have surely been the elites' task to tell us back then.

So the question remains why we should trust our own elites when they lied to us back then and ever since? When we come to the conclusion that our own elites have failed and when we just believe into our own common sense, then the first and foremost instrument to restore stability and the rule of law in Europe (and eventually the belive in ourselves) would be to immediately close the borders and abolish the Schengen regime. And the second most important instrument would be to find a mutual agreement to abolish the euro regime and to go back to democratically legitimized structures and national currencies where each nation could pursue the monetary policy best suited for the country and noone would have to guarantee for other people's mistakes. We would then have to rebuild the European Union in a way that it would stand democratic referenda in every member state. And when they tell us that it would mean a plunge into the abyss - then this would encourage us to go on. For the long term, we would need a new ideology - preferably a religion - which would unite us, make us strive like our predecessors for more than just our material well-being and make us less prone to corruption by our own elites.

So, bring Merkel down (like 40% of the Germans prefer), take the UK out of this faulty EU (like 50% of the Britons prefer) or bring Le Pen into power (like 30% of the French prefer) - it doesn't matter where and when but we simpliy cannot continue with the current situation any longer.
John Brian Shannon Feb 1, 2016

Hi Joschka,

The sky has been falling for some time.

Since the time of ancient Egypt, perhaps before that, huge forces have been tearing away at what (surprisingly) little we've been able to accomplish.

However, I strongly agree with your last paragraph -- every word of it is pure gold.

I wish I lived in Europe and was in the hat business, I would create a line of hats (and helmets for the various sports like cycling, parasailing, etc) with that paragraph written in gold lettering around the rim.

"Suicide, of course, can be prevented. But those who are happily chiseling away at Merkel’s position, the UK’s European identity, and France’s Enlightenment values threaten to undermine the ledge on which we’re all standing." -- Joschka Fischer

Not that anyone can be immune from criticism and constructive criticism certainly does have its place, but there comes a point when tearing down our civilization can become self harming.

I believe you've identified that point succinctly.

As always, very best regards, JBS
- John Brian Shannon Feb 1, 2016
  
  Hi Zsolt,
  
  Thank you for your thoughtful comment, which I heartily endorse.
  
  As always, very best regards, JBS
- Zsolt Hermann Feb 1, 2016
  
  I agree with you that we need to look at the picture from historical perspective.
  When we look at human history we can see it is not other but recurring cycles of building and destruction.
  So far by instinctively following our inherently self-serving and self-justifying nature we created good looking, attractive ideologies but as soon as we tried putting them into practice our nature started distorting, corrupting our ideals and we ended up in crisis, dead end situations, economic collapse. At the end of each cycle an explosive event like a revolution or large scale war ruined the actual civilization and then we started building anew.
  
  Unfortunately these explosive events are getting more and more destructive, the large one comprising if two World Wars.
  Today we are again at the end of our actual cycle. this time we managed to corrupt the best looking ideologies - liberal democracy and free market capitalism.
  If we can't snap out of this instinctive development the next inevitable explosion might wipe all of us out.
  It is time we start using our unique human traits - critical self-assessment and capability to initiate self-change.
  
  First of all we would need to realize what it truly means that we evolved into a globally integrated and interdependent world.
  in such a global, integral system such notions as "global leaders", "global policemen" are not only obsolete but they are outright destructive.
  We entered the era of mutuality. Problem solving, survival from now on depends on "circular", mutually complementing decision making and activities
  And all calculations have to be made for the well-being of the whole above self-interest since we are all sitting on the same boat.
  
  Obviously such fundamental changes will not just happen by themselves. They need positive motivation, immediate positive emotional feedback to become sustainable.
  And that can only be achieved through a brand new, "global, integral" education program, societal value change.
Steve Hurst Feb 1, 2016

There is too much illusion about Europe. All that is happening is the lip gloss is being wiped off. Germany and France are due to slide and they will not like it. It will of course be somebodyelses fault according to them.

It is entirely Eurocentric to describe the UK seeking reasonable accomodation of the unintended consquences of improperly structured common policy as suicide.

When Germany is concerned about issues - for example border control or sharing migrant burden of migrants who specifically want to go to Berlin or Frankfurt - this is of course entirely critical to the EUs existence according to Germany

But as usual the EU way to encourage co-operation is to denigrate anybody - voter or country - who questions anything. There is a long and growing list of countries the EU moans about. The Netherlands about Ukraine, Italy about migrants, Greece about everything, the UK about wanting to cut back on migrant flows to the UK, Hungary about border control although most of the EU is now following suit etc etc etc.

Really the EU federalists need to read a few books on team building and management.

'comets streaking accros the sky' There is one - it is a virus that appears to lobotomise the human race. In the face of that EU issues fade somewhat. If it spreads there will be massive consequences
Simon Glossop Feb 1, 2016

Think this is an interesting piece will not offered solutions. Change of course does not have to be bad, and can be embraced.
Curtis Carpenter Feb 1, 2016

The notion that the liberal Western order in place since the end of WW2 was based on the global hegemony of the U.S. reflects a remarkably simplistic view and a case of historical amnesia.

The "order," such as it has been, was based on a starkly drawn conflict between the economic ideologies of the Soviet Union and the West which every fool at least thought (s)he could understand.

The descent into chaos began when that conflict came to an end, leaving the masses without a primary focus and free to pursue other long-neglected hatreds and conflicts.

Europe took advantage of the bipolarity to adjust and rebuild after the war, leaving the U.S. to do the bulk of the heavy lifting for "The West" as an ideological concept. Some will argue that this became a habit of sorts, as the major European powers abrogated their fair share of the burdens of leadership in the defense of Western ideals.

Today, in my view, the U.S. needs to learn to be more of a _reliable partner_ in a joint effort to address global issues. Europe on the other hand -- either as a whole or as a collection of fragments once again -- needs to decide what that means.
M M Feb 1, 2016

Dear Joschka, we are mortals, none of us humans is immortal. Merkel is not irreplaceable or immortal for this matter. The UK European’s identity will never change, and France has always been a disaster and a great disappointment. In a way, you are of the old breed of politicians, the ones that knew what politics was about and to some extent knew how to navigate unchartered waters. Our current political leadership, globally speaking, is dismal and has been a great disappointment. What the world needs today is another Yalta and of the type of politicians that attended it.
Aale Hanse Feb 1, 2016

Exciting times we live in..
The only things common across centuries has been power, greed and conflict so this century will have to have its version to keep faith. Only problem I will not live long enough to see the aftermath but only the conflict. Then again, living through the decadent 50+ years just past was enough. Surely we will go down in history as the worst, slavery and cruelty is one thing but making a mess of our home will eventually put that to shame. As for the glory days of Pax Americana coming to an end, bugr-me the Romans, Ottomans and the Hapsburgs lasted longer, no they wasted the opportunity and will not be remembered for much of value when it's all done and dusted…
Sheikh Belal Feb 1, 2016

World is in a chaos. Thanks for reminding us. Also please ask ourselves to go to the basics. Lets not practice double standards. Whatever be the odds we should not spare ourselves to stray away from the basis values like democracy, human rights, justice, equality, fairness, accountability and the likes. Lets not forget the values that make Europe so special.

http://prosyn.org/4ptIvRD/es;

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