Skip to main content

Cookies and Privacy

We use cookies to improve your experience on our website. To find out more, read our updated Cookie policy, Privacy policy and Terms & Conditions

german stock broker Ralph Orlowski/Getty Images

经济的不祥之兆

发自巴塞尔——任何人都不应高估经济学家们的理解能力。正如2008年年中爆发的全球经济衰退的严重程度让大多数经济学家大呼意外那样,复苏的僵化本质也足足让他们吃了一惊。同样,他们眼下做出的经济预测似乎也不过是对近期增长的乐观延伸而已。

事实上并非一切问题都不露痕迹。如果再来一场金融危机,其随后导致的经济衰退可能比上一次更加严重,尤其是因为政策制定者们在应对危机时将面临着前所未有的经济和政治限制。

一些人寄望于危机后全球金融监管的改善,认为这些措施可以防止财务困局蔓延到实体经济中。然而这是一个不明智的立场。许多这些“改善”的分析性基础似乎都不太站得住脚,而实施新监管体制的挑战已证明是极为艰巨的。

We hope you're enjoying Project Syndicate.

To continue reading, subscribe now.

Subscribe

Get unlimited access to PS premium content, including in-depth commentaries, book reviews, exclusive interviews, On Point, the Big Picture, the PS Archive, and our annual year-ahead magazine.

https://prosyn.org/Oj3sBPdzh;
  1. wei22_FABRICE COFFRINIAFP via Getty Images_WTOredlight Fabrice Coffrini/AFP via Getty Images

    How to Revive the WTO

    Shang-Jin Wei & Xinding Yu

    The World Trade Organization’s appellate body is under threat not from China, but from the United States, which is blocking the appointment of new judges to the panel. Reviving the WTO will require changes to the organization's rules – but killing its dispute-settlement system is not the solution.

    0
  2. ghosh16_Yawar NazirGetty Images_indiakashmirmuslimwoman Yawar Nazir/Getty Images

    The Rape of India’s Soul

    Jayati Ghosh

    India’s rapid descent into xenophobia, violence, and irrationality has an important economic dimension, but it takes politicians to channel these emotions into nationalism, and to embolden the nationalists to commit violence. Now that the BJP has done so, is it able – or willing – to exorcise the many demons it has unleashed?

    10