Doppio Plauso per il “New Normal”

JAKARTA – L’opinione corrente sullo stato dell’economia mondiale è più o meno la seguente: dall’inizio della crisi finanziaria del 2007-2008, il mondo sviluppato ha lottato per riprendersi, ma solo gli Stati Uniti sono stati in grado di recuperare. I paesi emergenti sono andati meglio, ma ultimamente anche loro hanno iniziato ad avere problemi. In un clima economico desolante - si sostiene - gli unici vincitori sono stati i ricchi, con conseguente disuguaglianza cresciuta a dismisura.

Questo scenario sembra perfettamente corretto - fino a quando, ad un più attento esame, si scopre che è completamente sbagliato.

Si inizia con la crescita economica. Secondo il Fondo Monetario Internazionale, nel corso del primo decennio di questo secolo, la crescita globale annua è stata in media del 3,7%, rispetto al 3,3% degli anni ottanta e novanta. Negli ultimi quattro anni, la crescita è stata in media del 3,4%. Questo dato è di gran lunga inferiore a quello da molti auspicato; nel 2010, avevo previsto che, nel decennio a venire, il mondo sarebbe potuto crescere a un tasso annuo del 4,1%. Ma il 3,4% è quasi catastrofico rispetto al passato.

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