Ein doppeltes Hurra auf die neue Normalität

JAKARTA – Die konventionelle Ansicht über den Zustand der Weltwirtschaft lautet ungefähr wie folgt: Seit dem Beginn der Finanzkrise der Jahre 2007-2008 haben die Industriestaaten Schwierigkeiten, sich zu erholen, und nur die Vereinigten Staaten konnten sich anpassen. Den Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländern ging es besser, aber auch sie sind kürzlich ins Straucheln geraten. In einem düsteren wirtschaftlichen Klima, so wird argumentiert, sind nur die Reichen die Gewinner, was zu immer stärkerer Ungleichheit führt.

Dieses Szenario hört sich völlig richtig an – bis sich bei näherem Hinschauen herausstellt, dass es grundlegend falsch ist.

Beginnen wir mit dem Wirtschaftswachstum: Nach Angaben des Internationalen Währungsfonds betrug das durchschnittliche weltweite Wachstum während der ersten zehn Jahre des Jahrhunderts 3,7%, verglichen mit 3,3% in den 1980ern und 1990ern. In den letzten vier Jahren lag es dann bei durchschnittlich 3,4%. Das ist deutlich niedriger, als viele gehofft haben. Im Jahr 2010 sagte ich voraus, die Welt werde im kommenden Jahrzehnt um 4,1% jährlich wachsen. Aber 3,4% ist historisch betrachtet alles andere als eine Katastrophe.

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