Deux bons points pour la nouvelle normalité

JAKARTA – L'opinion commune au sujet de l'état de l'économie mondiale ressemble un peu à cela : depuis le début de la crise financière de 2007-2008, le monde développé lutte pour la reprise et seuls les États-Unis ont réussi à rétablir un équilibre. Les pays émergents ont mieux résisté. Mais ils commencent à éprouver également des difficultés ces derniers temps. Selon cet argument, dans un climat économique morose les seuls gagnants sont les riches, ce qui entraîne la montée en flèche des inégalités.

Ce scénario paraît tout à fait juste. Pourtant après un examen plus approfondi, il s'avère être complètement faux.

Considérons tout d'abord la croissance économique. Selon le Fonds Monétaire International, au cours de la première décennie de ce siècle, la croissance mondiale annuelle a été moyenne de 3,7%, par rapport à 3,3% dans les années 1980 et 1990. Au cours des quatre dernières années, la croissance a été en moyenne de 3,4%. Ces résultats sont bien inférieurs à de nombreuses estimations : en 2010, j'avais prédit que dans la décennie à venir la croissance mondiale aurait un taux annuel de 4,1%. Mais 3,4% n'est guère catastrophique d'après les normes historiques.

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