A South Korean Employee picks up an imported wine bottle Park Ji-Hwan/Getty Images

终于迎来了好时光?

伦敦 – 2017年2月,我写了一则乐观的评论,题目是《令人惊喜的全球经济恢复力》(The Global Economy’s Surprising Resilience)。这篇评论令那些只看到西方国家——包括特朗普刚刚发表了就职演说的美国——阴暗面的人感到震惊。

如今,近一年过去了,以我三十年的全球金融市场经验,我认为经济状况并不那么明白。

从积极的一面说,我在去年2月所列出的六个周期性指标仍然保持强劲,其中一些甚至比当时还要好。一项关键指标是韩国月度贸易数据。2017年,韩国出口增长了15.8%,为1956年有数据以来的最大涨幅。此外,出口增长是在特朗普威胁要退出美韩自由贸易协定并挑动与朝鲜的对峙的情况下实现的——对预测全球贸易萎缩的人来说,这是一记重创。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

To access our archive, please log in or register now and read two articles from our archive every month for free. For unlimited access to our archive, as well as to the unrivaled analysis of PS On Point, subscribe now.

required

By proceeding, you agree to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy, which describes the personal data we collect and how we use it.

Log in

http://prosyn.org/w923yaU/zh;

Cookies and Privacy

We use cookies to improve your experience on our website. To find out more, read our updated cookie policy and privacy policy.