Cinco incógnitas de las elecciones alemanas

El 18 de septiembre, Alemania celebrará unas elecciones que entrañan al menos cinco incógnitas. Si fuera una ecuación, sería imposible de resolver. Por fortuna, la política no es como las matemáticas... aunque, por desgracia, eso significa que no hay soluciones claras. De hecho, incluso en los opacos términos de la política contemporánea, el caso alemán es particularmente desconcertante.

La primera incógnita es la de por qué se celebran las elecciones, para empezar. El canciller Gerhard Schröder disponía aún de quince meses antes de estar obligado a convocar las elecciones y parecía que no tenía dificultad para movilizar su mayoría –escasa, hay que reconocerlo– parlamentaria.

Desde luego, las importantes cuestiones que el Presidente Federal enumeró cuando disolvió el Bundestag son reales. La situación fiscal es, con criterios alemanes, inaceptable y la deuda pública, con sus niveles actuales, contraviene el Pacto de Crecimiento y Estabilidad de la Unión Europea y constituye una carga para las generaciones futuras. La evolución demográfica –por citar sólo un factor– requiere reformas importantes de la política social. Además, las instituciones del sistema federal no permiten adoptar decisiones rápidas ni claras.

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