德国选举的五个未知数

9月18日,德国会进行一场至少有五个未知数的选举。如果说这是一个方程式,那么它将不可能有解。幸运的是,政治不是数学—虽然,不幸的是,这意味着没有明确的答案。的确,即便是在当代政治不透明的环境下,德国的情况也特别让人伤脑筋。

第一个未知数就是为什么要进行选举。施罗德总理的任期结束还有15个月,而他似乎在调动议会里无可否认的微弱多数方面也没有困难。

确切地说,当联邦总统解散德国联邦议院时所列举的重大问题都是真实存在的。以德国的标准衡量,当前的财政状况令人不能接受;目前的国债水平也与欧盟的《稳定与增长协定》大相径庭,并成为了未来世代的负担。仅仅人口统计学数据的变化发展就需要德国在社会政策方面进行重大改革。另外,联邦体系下的机构设置也使得政府无法进行迅速而明确的决策。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/gok44jI/zh;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now