Africa is forecast to be one of the largest sources of global economic growth over the next 50 years, but the continent’s demographic dividend could lead to mass migration and the subsequent rise of far-right governments across Europe. The international community must act now to avoid this nightmare scenario.
NEW YORK – Africa could be the largest source of global economic growth over the next half-century. But during the same period, the continent could also trigger the next great European war.
Goldman Sachs projects that Africa’s GDP will grow from roughly $3 trillion today to $44 trillion in 2075, with its share of global GDP rising from 3% to 11%. This increase would make the continent one of the world’s main growth engines, surpassed only by India, which is predicted to add $46 trillion in GDP over the same period. To put this in perspective, between 2030 and 2075, Goldman Sachs’ model predicts that Chinese GDP will rise by $8.5 trillion less, and the United States’ GDP by $16.5 trillion less, than Africa’s.
In fact, by 2075, Nigeria is forecast to become the world’s fifth-largest economy, with a GDP of $13 trillion, and Egypt the seventh-largest, with a GDP of more than $10 trillion. Meanwhile, Ethiopia is expected to rank 17th, while South Africa remains around 25th, with GDPs of more than $6 trillion and $3 trillion, respectively.
NEW YORK – Africa could be the largest source of global economic growth over the next half-century. But during the same period, the continent could also trigger the next great European war.
Goldman Sachs projects that Africa’s GDP will grow from roughly $3 trillion today to $44 trillion in 2075, with its share of global GDP rising from 3% to 11%. This increase would make the continent one of the world’s main growth engines, surpassed only by India, which is predicted to add $46 trillion in GDP over the same period. To put this in perspective, between 2030 and 2075, Goldman Sachs’ model predicts that Chinese GDP will rise by $8.5 trillion less, and the United States’ GDP by $16.5 trillion less, than Africa’s.
In fact, by 2075, Nigeria is forecast to become the world’s fifth-largest economy, with a GDP of $13 trillion, and Egypt the seventh-largest, with a GDP of more than $10 trillion. Meanwhile, Ethiopia is expected to rank 17th, while South Africa remains around 25th, with GDPs of more than $6 trillion and $3 trillion, respectively.