Economics

El futuro no tan sombrío del trabajo

Oct 19, 2017 Zia Qureshi

WASHINGTON, DC – El futuro del trabajo es un tema candente estos días. Ha inspirado una catarata aparentemente infinita de análisis, comentarios y conferencias, y fue uno de los asuntos prominentes que se abordaron en las reuniones anuales de la semana pasada del Fondo Monetario Internacional y del Banco Mundial. Con buenas razones: las nuevas tecnologías -concretamente, la digitalización, la robótica y la inteligencia artificial- tienen implicancias de amplio alcance para el empleo. Pero, contrariamente a cómo se suele encuadrar la historia, un final feliz es posible.

El debate actual suele cobrar ribetes melodramáticos, cuando pronostica un futuro en el cual las máquinas expulsarán a los humanos del trabajo. Según algunas estimaciones desalentadoras, el 47% de los empleos están en riesgo en Estados Unidos; el 57% en los países de la OCDE; las dos terceras partes en las economías en desarrollo y la mitad de todos los empleos a nivel global (alrededor de dos mil millones).

Sin embargo, predicciones igualmente sombrías de una destrucción de los empleos en gran escala y un desempleo estructural generado por la alta tecnología acompañaron episodios importantes de automatización en el pasado, inclusive de boca de economistas de renombre. Una predicción la hizo John Maynard Keynes; otra, Wassily Leontief. Ninguna de las dos se materializó. Por el contrario, el cambio tecnológico actuó como un fuerte impulsor del crecimiento de la productividad y del empleo.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 3 Comments on this article

Steve Hurst Oct 21, 2017

http://uk.businessinsider.com/automation-should-worry-some-wall-streeters-2017-10

“The kind of skills that we’ll need have to be taught beginning at a much earlier age. Whether you can train the same worker at the same time you’re changing their job remains to be seen.”
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Steve Hurst Oct 19, 2017

Well all of this is true up to a point but it remains pie in the sky, and a very big pie at that. So large a pie it casts a big shadow to those on the ground

Synthetic labour is labour and moves the supply and demand point. That point does not have to be moved much to have consequences. Further, synthetic labour works 24/7, is zero cost reproducible, and will undoubtedly not execute human errors unless in the code. In most markets a change in the supply point by a few percent can move the market significantly, it is a levered movement. It is absolutely clear that synthetic labour will move the supply by more than a few percentage points.

When going to hospital the only minor operation is one somebody else has. Zia Qureshi sounds like somebody advising dont worry its only a minor thing.

Whilst training is undoubtedly a good thing it is of next to no use without employment. The developed world is more educated than ever before yet key measurands continue to decline. QED training will not solve this matter.

Unfortunately this article like so many on the issue is little more than spam

The issue is will creative destruction exceed job creation and the answer is almost certainly yes because an entire new sector has to be created to provide new employment. Furthermore it is highly likely that synthetic labour will attack SMEs existence as well as corporate labour demand. SMEs remain critical to economic growth and they are under threat already and in decline.

'But, with smart, forward-looking policies,...' You cannot define the problem in detail yet you propose it can be addressed by unformulated policies? It is odds on in my book that synthetic labour, which has no replication cost, can be mass implemented at the press of a button (notably unlike recruiting human labour) and is already in progress as a sector, will move far faster in implementation than any policy development and in particular will outstrip any basic training package delivery which takes years. Firstly, full time training - in particular full time retraining of an already qualified person - is very expensive. It should be noted that students fund their higher education both in time and debt on the basis it delivers secure employment. Take that security forecast and expectation away and there is no reason to invest, even if there is no debt associated there is still time required to be invested. Secondly - workplace training - whilst available through to a high level in principle is more typically low level, a hard delivery, has a high drop-out rate, and a stretched delivery timescale, and is very prone to issues with quality. There are truly monumental problems with this casual proposal.

A very disappointing article, if it was anymore woolly it would be mistaken for a sheep.
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stephan Edwards Oct 19, 2017

Well lets start with the obvious question. Who is going to pay for this continuous learning?? Student debt is already a noose around many peoples necks, Do you propose people spend their entire lives going into debt for student loans. That would be a great deal for the for profit education industry for the rest of us not so much!
Second reforms to Labor markets isn't that the code words for make the workers lives even MORE miserable to benefit corporations? The unions have already been broken, Our masters have created the gig economy so they don't even have to pay even the most basic benefits.
Has for the "Social Contracts" isn't that a code word for the corporations get anything they want and workers get the scraps?
Smart forward looking policies?????????? When was the last time The US of Europe had a "Forwarding looking" policy that benefited anyone who wasn't rich and connected?
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