Comments 15

المقاومة الأخيرة ضد الشعبوية

Nov 28, 2016 Dominique Moisi

القدس - في وقت سابق، مباشرة بعد إعادة توحيد ألمانيا في عام 1990، كان العديد من الفرنسيين يخشون ألمانيا. اليوم، لقد تم عكس الأدوار. لكن الألمان لا يخشون فرنسا بنفس القدر. في أعقاب استفتاء البريكست في يونيو في المملكة المتحدة وفوز دونالد ترامب في الانتخابات الرئاسية في الولايات المتحدة في أوائل هذا الشهر، من الممكن أن تقع فرنسا أيضا ضحية للقوات الشعبوية المدمرة، وذلك إذا اختار الناخبون مارين لوبان عن الجبهة الوطنية اليمينية المتطرفة كرئيستهم المقبلة.

قد يُسعد الألمان أن وسائل الإعلام الأمريكية اعتبرت المستشارة الألمانية أنجيلا ميركل "محامية الغرب الليبرالي الأخيرة" – وأن ألمانيا بمثابة جزيرة من الاستقرار في محيط من الفوضى. ويمكن وصف ألمانيا كأفضل تلميذ في الصف – ولو أنها تعودت على ذلك؛ والآن تشعر وكأنها التلميذ الوحيد الذي يحضُر على الإطلاق.

مع خروج الولايات المتحدة، فقد تبقى عدد قليل من التلاميذ النجباء. وعلى الرغم من تراجع ترامب عن بعض وعوده الأساسية، من غير المرجح أن يتخلى عن نهج "أمريكا أولا". ونتيجة لذلك، قد تكون الولايات المتحدة على وشك الانفصال بشكل حاسم مع الشمولية والمشاركة العالمية التي ميزت السبعين سنة الماضية.

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Per Kurowski Dec 4, 2016

Few are as dangerous populists, as bank regulators promising they can make banks safer.

http://subprimeregulations.blogspot.hk/2016/10/banking-before-and-after-1988.html
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Peter Lintner Dec 2, 2016

"European Project" is an elitist project. Europeans dont want or need it. You can keep it, thank you very much. Get ready for more "populists" as patriots are called these days.

Days of your beloved, unworkable, utopian, totalitarian EU are counted. Enjoy it while it lasts.
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j. von Hettlingen Dec 1, 2016

Dominique Moisi describes next year's presidential election in France as Europe's "last stand against populism." Since Trump's election, Angela Merkel is now seen as the West's new standard bearer, and the last defender of liberal values. In fact Obama chose Berlin for his farewell journey, inspiring her to assume the mantle of "leader of the free world" that he has donned for eight years.
But Merkel can't do it alone, and needs France to shoulder her burden. So the author hopes that France won't "fall victim to destructive populist forces," and that voters won't "choose the far-right National Front’s Marine Le Pen as their next president." Her election would mean an end to the historical ties between France and Germany, and "sever the Franco-German axis around which the EU rotates."
For many Germans the "values, principles and norms" enshrined in the European project have enabled their country "to reconcile with itself and its neighbors, beginning with France." German officials have long concluded that the Franco-German relationship is special and that there is no alternative to replace it as the driving force in Europe. Every new chancellor and president have moved to consolidate relations betwee their two countries following their elections.
Not so Marine Le pen, who is known for her Eurosceptic, anti-immigration stance. She makes no secret of taking France out of the EU and Eurozone, and called the bloc an "oppressive model", saying it would be replaced by a "Europe of free nations." All eyes are on her, since she congratulated Trump on his victory, and admitted that his election would boost her chance to win in France.
However observers believe she stands no chance of winning because many French still find the Le Pen brand - not its ideas - too toxic. Also "France’s two-round voting system, which ensures that the president obtains the support of a majority of voters, makes it extremely unlikely that a radical candidate like Le Pen can take power." Besides she faces fierce competition from François Fillon, who has won the rightwing presidential primaries last week.
Shortly after Obama's visit, Angela Merkel announced her plan to stand for fourth term as chancellor next year. Even though she is still much revered, she faces multiple challenges. The populist party, Alternative for Germany has made inroads in recent regional elections. The influx of refugees has taken a toll on her approval ratings. Unlike France, Germany enjoys robust growth, leaving France too weak to be an equal partner, while forcing Germany to address the various crises and make decisions. But together they are stronger.
The author says, "France does not need to match Germany’s economic might. What it can offer nowadays is at least as important. With Europe facing a combination of external threats, such as turmoil in the Middle East and Russian adventurism, and internal challenges, such as homegrown terrorism, security and defense cannot take a backseat to economic policy. And, in these areas, France has real comparative advantages."
Europe's future depends on stability in Germany. Remaining in office Merkel would be able to lead Europe and weather the storm. Therefore the author urges French voters to "support a person of authority, wisdom, and experience, who is willing and able to undertake urgently needed reforms without exacerbating social divisions." Defeating Marine Le Pen could curb "the current wave of right-wing populism," breathing new life into the European project.
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Peter Schaeffer Nov 30, 2016

“The idea that the basic responsibility of government is to maximize the welfare of citizens, not to pursue some abstract concept of the global good. Closely related to this is the idea that people want to feel that they are shaping the societies in which they live”

Useful idiots like Merkel and Hollande can't even imagine pro-German or pro-French policies. Fortunately, plenty of people in Germany and France can.
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Matthew McCarthy Nov 29, 2016

Don't worry so much about a LePen presidency abandoning the values and principles of the European Union. The European Union abandoned them quite some time ago. The whole democracy and cooperation thing gave way to domination and control. And don't forget the 3 1/2 fundamental freedoms...
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Markus Pfeifer Nov 29, 2016

I thought all those liberal globalists wanted creative destruction. Now they get it and it is wrong again.
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Peter Schaeffer Nov 29, 2016

"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." - John F. Kennedy
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act" - George Orwell
- Peter Schaeffer Nov 30, 2016
  
  CC, This isn't 1923, it's 2016. In 2016, Isreal and Austrialia have border control policies that work and France does not. You think you can stifle any real debate by shouting "Nazi", "fascist", "racist", "xenophobe", etc. Guess what? People have stopped listening. They know that those are the words, the lying press uses to censor the truth. Worse, you are making your enemies respectable. Quote from David Frum...
  
  "When you tell a country, when you tell people in the country, that the only people who deal with the problem you care about are the fascists, they are going to say: “Who are these fascists of who you speak, and what is their phone number?”
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- Peter Schaeffer Nov 30, 2016
  
  CC, Yeh I get it. Israel is run by Hitler and Australia is run by Mussolini... At least in your fantasy worldview... Back in the real world... Israel and Australia are lifeboat nations willing to survive. Europe is sinking like a stone. Of course, sinking is rather popular in some circles...
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- Curtis Carpenter Nov 29, 2016
  
  Trolling through Bartletts isn't a substitute for thinking Peter.
  
  We've been down your road before. The destination will be the same this time as last.
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hanno achenbach Nov 29, 2016

Ti Pierre Schaeffer:

EuroReich and all that:

Please remember that the Euro was a French idea and forced on an unwilling Germany as the French price for reunification. At the time, Chancellor Kohl pointed out that monetary union could not work without political union. But that was refused by France.

Now Germany has made the best of the Euro, but France has not. Why not? Will Marine Le Pen change that?
- Peter Schaeffer Nov 29, 2016
  
  HA,
  
  The Euro may have been a French idea. However, it is still a disaster. Who ever said that French ideas are always good? Hollande was/is French and was elected by the French. He now has a 4% approval rating (are 4% of the French really that crazy? It would seem so).
  
  Germany has assuredly done better out of the Euro than France. The current structure of the world economy (high demand for capital goods) favors Germany, not France. Germany reformed its economy years ago, France did not (and won't anytime soon).
  
  Germany can succeed inside the Euro system (sort of, see Europe’s Secret Bailout by Hans-Werner Sinn) while France can not. France must leave the Euro system to survive. Le Pen will do this. The French elite will not.
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Peter Schaeffer Nov 28, 2016

The liberal internationalist order, so much loved by the likes of Moisi is a clueless failure. Every year, Europe's problems get worse. Every year, unemployment gets worse. Every year inequality goes up. Every year, wages go down and the middle-class declines. Every year, Europe is flooded by illegals that Europe can't/won't stop.

How does the establishment deal with this? Just the usual pious nonsense about "ever deeper union", "we can do this", "soft power", "human rights", "Open Europe", etc. In other words, ongoing failure wrapped in silly rhetoric.

Time for a change. Hopefully, Presidente Marine Le Pen will bring it.
- Peter Schaeffer Nov 29, 2016
  
  CC, This isn't 1923, it's 2016. In 2016, Isreal and Austrialia have border control policies that work and France does not. You think you can stifle any real debate by shouting "Nazi", "fascist", "racist", "xenophobe", etc. Guess what? People have stopped listening. They know that those are the words, the lying press uses to censor the truth. Worse, you are making your enemies respectable. Quote from David Frum...
  
  "When you tell a country, when you tell people in the country, that the only people who deal with the problem you care about are the fascists, they are going to say: “Who are these fascists of who you speak, and what is their phone number?”"
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- Curtis Carpenter Nov 29, 2016
  
  I am, actually. The point though is that authoritarian populism involves tradeoffs that are as foolish to ignore now as it was to ignore them in 1923. You, perhaps, are unfamiliar with the law of unintended consequences?
  
  Meanwhile, the notion that nationality is going to determine who gets to ride in your lifeboats strikes me as a delusional form of wishful thinking. The boats will be manned by the rich, quite regardless of where they come from or their political proclivities.
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- Peter Schaeffer Nov 29, 2016
  
  CC, I take it that you are unfamilar with Godwin's Law (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin's_law) and "Reductio ad Hitlerum".
  
  I guess in your world vegetarians are all Nazis because Hitler was a vegetarian. I guess all anti-smoking activists are Nazis because Hitler hated tobacco. Lame.
  
  In real life, Israel has enjoyed stunning success stopping terrorists and illegals with its "Big Beautiful Wall". Presumably, the Nazis now run Israel. Australia has a near perfect record of keeping out invaders with its naval blockade. Presumably, Mussolini now runs Australia.
  
  Your world has utterly failed. Marine Le Pen is the best hope for France. She may be the last hope for France.
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- Curtis Carpenter Nov 29, 2016
  
  And Benito made the trains run on time, and Adolph built the autobahns. A good tradeoff for Europeans to replicate, Peter Schaeffer?
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- Peter Schaeffer Nov 28, 2016
  
  Le Pen can do a lot to fix France. She can stop the MENA invasion. That alone will ensure that France survives which is most certainly not true with Hollande. She can end the Euro which has condemned much of Europe to poverty, decline, and failure.
  
  You don't like the steps she can take. However, they are very real and very positive. If the world really faces your litany of problems, the survivors will be the "lifeboat nations" that close their doors to failed states of the world. Le Pen will defend France as a lifeboat. Hollande and the left will sink the lifeboat.
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- Curtis Carpenter Nov 28, 2016
  
  You make the same mistake the American right has made in imagining that an authoritarian populist can deliver beneficial change, much less any solutions to real problems. A Le Pen presidency would do nothing but allow the French people to indulge in a neofascist fantasy for a while -- and emerge more bitter and disillusioned than they are now. The same will be true here in Trump's U.S..
  
  Le Pen, Nuttall, Orban, Petry, Trump and the rest are swimming against grim reality: too many people for too few jobs, pending ecological disasters, global fresh water crises, anticipated agricultural failures by mid-century, rapidly depleting resources... Global problems that will demand multinational cooperation even if the only goal is to forestall them, not solve them.
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Peter Schaeffer Nov 28, 2016

What Moisi calls "Europe" is really German oppression of the rest of Europe. Actually, is it just the corrupt alliance of identity politics left (Fisher) and the economic right (Schäuble) with Merkel combining both evils in one person.

When Germany declared that it would take an unlimited number of "refugees" (illegal economic migrants in real life), Germany violated several European agreements (notably the Dublin Regulation). Now Germany wants to impose its unilateral policy disaster on the rest of Europe. Not surprisingly the rest of Europe isn’t interested.

Germany under Merkel choose to attack the rest of Europe. Europe (and many Germans) are fighting back. No one in Europe should be subject to the EuroReich’s tyranny and oppression. Merkel’s vision of paradise is clearly a (German) jackboot stomping on the face humanity forever (while prattling on about “human rights”, Open Europe, “we can do it”, etc.)

What does the Soros/Merkel EuroReich offer to the people of Europe? Sadly, we know the answer all too well. It is Bataclan, Charlie Hebdo, banlieues, tournantes, Cologne, Molenbeek, Rosengård, etc. forever. If anyone does to challenge the EuroReich/EuroElite they can expect a “hate” crimes trial in short order. Sadly, the EUSSR and the USSR are becoming ever more alike.

Of course, the evil of the EUSSR doesn’t end with Cologne and Bataclan. The Euro has brought devastation to much of Europe with no hope of recovery (or debt relief) as long Herr Merkel is in charge. Yet another (German) jackboot stomping on the face humanity forever.

There is a useful quote from Mikhail Gorbachev on this point.

“The most puzzling development in politics during the last decade is the apparent determination of Western European leaders to re-create the Soviet Union in Western Europe.”

The USSR was evil. The EUSSR is little better. Time for a change. Brexit will help to bring down the Euroreich.
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Henk Crop Nov 28, 2016

The author is proposing an outdated approach. There is a better solution. In the past Germany, France and the UK lead the EU. Now the UK will be out and the EU has many more members. It is difficult to see how other nations will be adequately represented if the EU is going to be lead by just Germany and France. My proposal is that a small, high level, management team is formed. Consisting of Germany, France and 4 representatives of groups from other countries (+chairman). The task is to prepare decisions to be taken by the European Board (of Government Leaders ). This team make sure that fair and balanced proposals will be send to the EB meeting. This team will make sure that all member states are adequately informed and that these states will be given adequate opportunity to express their viewpoints.
This approach will lead to decisions of better quality, gives better quarantee for fair decisions and increases the speed of the decision making process.
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Michael Public Nov 28, 2016

Brexit. Trump. Best you brace yourself for president Le Pen.

It is like we learned nothing about nationalism from WW1 and WW2...
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M M Nov 28, 2016

Although Merkel &Co have been getting most of the bashing in the last few years, the main culprits for the problems in France and in the EU are and have always been the French establishments. Both left and right French establishments have got nothing new to offer but more misery for the French people and more fragmentation at the EU level. Le Pen is not the ideal person, neither was Trump, neither any of the other leaders who have been elected in rage against the Status Quo. Therefore, my dear Mr. Moisi, I would not be surprised the slightest if Le Pen is indeed elected as the Presidente of "La Republique" and made it as being the "First Woman" Presidente, where HRC failed miserably...
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Curtis Carpenter Nov 28, 2016

The French have proven themselves to have more sense than my own countrymen here in the U.S. on more than one occasion in this miserable century, and I'm optimistic that they will do so once again in their selection of a new president.

Whether France and Germany can work together to re-unify a fragmenting Europe is another question. If so though, Europe may be poised to seize the greatest opportunity it has enjoyed since the end of the war.
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Bernhard Kopp Nov 28, 2016

All populists in Europe are the illegitimate offspring of the established parties and their incompetent political management since 1991. Today' politicians, including Mrs. Merkel, are only busy solving problems they themselves, or their predecessors back to 1991, have created. Not everything has gone wrong since then, but far too much. The Balkans, the Euro, the EU-expansion, and on and on. Too many politicians have bitten off more than their political systems, or all European systems together, could chew.
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المقاومة الأخيرة ضد الشعبوية

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