L'héritage morbide de Lehman

NEWPORT BEACH – Alors que s'approche le cinquième anniversaire de l'effondrement fracassant de la banque d'investissement Lehman Brothers, certains analystes vont revenir sur les causes d'un « arrêt brutal » mondial historique qui a abouti à d'énormes perturbations économiques et financières. D'autres vont décrire les conséquences d'un événement qui continue de produire des souffrances humaines considérables. Et certains vont partager leurs expériences personnelles sur une époque terrible pour l'économie mondiale et pour eux personnellement (décideurs, acteurs des marchés financiers et dans leur vie quotidienne).

Aussi intéressant que soient ces contributions, j'espère que nous allons aussi rencontrer un autre genre de point de vue : des analyses des résultats impensables auparavant qui se sont réalisés - avec de profondes implications pour les générations actuelles et futures - et que nos systèmes de gouvernance doivent encore traiter correctement. Dans cet esprit, en voici quatre.

Le premier fait, de loin le plus lourd de conséquences, est la difficulté persistante que les économies occidentales éprouvent pour faire face à une croissance économique solide et à une création d'emplois suffisante. Malgré la forte baisse initiale du PIB au dernier trimestre 2008 et au premier trimestre 2009, de trop nombreux pays occidentaux n'ont pas encore rebondi correctement, sans parler des taux de croissance qui ne cessent de provoquer des pertes d'emplois et de revenus. Plus généralement, seuls quelques-uns ont résolument surmonté les fléaux funestes que la crise a révélés : une demande mondiale insuffisante et déséquilibrée, une résilience structurelle, une agilité insuffisante et un surendettement persistant.

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