Paul Lachine

Cinque passi in avanti nel 2011

MILANO – Il peggio della crisi economico-finanziaria sembra essere passato. I mercati finanziari hanno registrato performance piuttosto positive nel 2010. La crescita è ripartita negli Stati Uniti e in alcune parti d’Europa. La riduzione del debito privato è proseguita, ma è stata controbilanciata dall’aumento dei deficit pubblici e dei debiti sovrani. Anche la crescita dei mercati emergenti è tornata ai livelli pre-crisi e sembra sostenibile, sorretta da politiche non convenzionali, destinate a “sterilizzare” massicci afflussi di capitale.

Tuttavia, i mercati emergenti continueranno a crescere solo se si eviterà una seconda fase discendente nelle economie avanzate, che continuano ad assorbire un’ampia (se pur calante) percentuale delle loro esportazioni. Una crescita lenta è gestibile, una crescita negativa non lo è.

Di conseguenza, per le economie emergenti, i rischi di ricaduta dei paesi avanzati e le esternalità delle loro politiche di ripresa destano molta preoccupazione. In numerosi paesi avanzati, inclusi gli Usa, le prospettive di crescita e occupazione stanno iniziando a divergere ampiamente, mettendo a rischio la coesione sociale e l’apertura economica.

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