michel temer Evaristo Sa/AFP/Getty Images

هل يعزز الانكماش المالي النمو

سانتياجو ــ تشير تجربة أوروبا الأخيرة إلى أن الانكماش المالي من غير الوارد أن يكون توسعيا. فعندما جُرِّب في اليونان، انخفض الإنفاق الحكومي، وارتفعت الضرائب، وانهار الناتج. وحدث الشيء نفسه، لكن بصورة أقل دراماتيكية، في أماكن أخرى من القارة. لقد ثبت فشل حُجة أنصار التقشف، كما يحب بول كروجمان رجل الاقتصاد الحائز على جائزة نوبل أن يسميهم.

لكن دروس الغرب لا تنطبق على بقية العالم بالضرورة.

في اثنتين من دول أميركا اللاتينية، بات من الواجب إعادة النظر في فكرة مفادها أن ضبط الأوضاع المالية (خفض العجز والدين الحكوميين) كفيل بتحفيز النمو. ففي البرازيل دأبت الحكومة على خفض العجز المالي الهائل في حين كان الاقتصاد يتعافى من أعمق حالة ركود يمر بها منذ عقود من الزمن (وإن كانت فضيحة الفساد التي تورط فيها الآن الرئيس ميشيل تيمر ربما تعرقل هذا الجهد). وفي الأرجنتين، تستطيع إدارة الرئيس موريسيو ماكري أن تخفض العجز بقوة أكبر مما فعلت حتى الآن، من دون المخاطرة بالعودة إلى الركود.

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