Найти политический выход

НЬЮ-ЙОРК – Существует всеобщее мнение о том, что масштабное монетарное стимулирование, финансовый стимул и поддержка финансовой системы, предпринятые правительствами и центральными банками во всем мире, помешали глубокому спаду 2008-2009 гг. перейти во вторую Великую Депрессию. Высокопоставленные чиновники смогли избежать депрессию потому, что они извлекли уроки из ошибок в политических мерах, которые были допущены во время Великой Депрессии 1930-х  гг., и когда Япония была близка к депрессии в 1990-х гг.

В результате, политические дебаты перешли к аргументам о том, каким будет выход из кризиса: в форме V (быстрый возврат к потенциальному росту), в форме U (медленный и анемичный рост) или даже в форме W (двойное падение). Во время глобального экономического свободного падения между осенью 2008 года и весной 2009 года экономический и финансовый Армагеддон в форме L все еще был твердым смешением вероятных сценариев.

Однако, критическая политическая проблема, которую предстоит решить, заключается в том, как рассчитать время и последовательность действий для стратегии выхода из этого масштабного монетарного и финансового стимулирования. Несомненно, текущая финансовая линия поведения, которой придерживается большинство развитых экономических систем – зависимость Соединенных Штатов, зоны евро, Великобритании, Японии и других от очень крупных бюджетных дефицитов и быстрого накоплении государственного долга – является нежизнеспособной.

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