Den richtigen Rückzug finden

NEW YORK – Es herrscht allgemein Konsens darüber, dass die massiven Konjunkturpakete, monetären Anreize und die Unterstützung des Finanzsystems durch Regierungen und Zentralbanken in der ganzen Welt verhindert haben, dass die tiefe Rezession von 2008 bis2009 zur Großen Depression Nr. 2 wurde. Entscheidungsträger in der Politik konnten eine Depression abwenden, weil sie aus den politischen Fehlern der Großen Depression in den 30er Jahren und der Beinah-Depression in Japan in den 90er Jahren gelernt haben.

Daraufhin verlegte man sich in den politischen Debatten auf die Frage, wie der Aufschwung aussehen würde: V-förmig (schnelle Rückkehr zu potentiellem Wachstum), U-förmig (langsames und kraftloses Wachstum) oder sogar W-förmig (ein weiterer Abschwung vor einer endgültigen Erholung). Während des freien Falls der Weltwirtschaft zwischen dem Herbst 2008 und dem Frühling 2009, tauchte auch ein L-förmiges Armageddon immer wieder im Strauß der plausiblen Möglichkeiten auf.

Die entscheidende Politikfrage, die vor uns liegt, ist jedoch, wie die Rückzugsstrategie aus den massiven Geld- und Steuererleichterungen zeitlich und vom Ablauf her zu bewerkstelligen ist. Der derzeitige finanzpolitische Weg, der in den meisten entwickelten Ländern verfolgt wird, also große Haushaltsdefizite bei gleichzeitiger Anhäufung riesiger Schuldenberge, wie in den USA, der Eurozone, in Großbritannien und in Japan, ist auf Dauer unhaltbar.

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