Olivier Douliery/Stringer

La incomprensión de la globalización

NEW HAVEN – Aunque parece atractiva en teoría, la globalización desluce en la práctica. Esa es la enseñanza que dejan el Brexit y el ascenso de Donald Trump en Estados Unidos. Y también está en la base de la reacción cada vez más virulenta contra China que hoy se extiende por el mundo. Los que ofrendan en el altar del libre comercio (entre quienes me incluyo) deben asumir y encarar esa evidente discrepancia.

La verdad sea dicha, no hay una teoría rigurosa de la globalización. Lo mejor que los economistas pueden ofrecer es un marco conceptual que se remonta a los inicios del siglo XIX con David Ricardo, según el cual, un país que se limite a producir de acuerdo con sus ventajas comparativas (en cuanto a dotación de recursos y habilidad de sus trabajadores) pronto estará mejor gracias al aumento del comercio transfronterizo. La liberalización comercial (el elixir de la globalización) promete beneficios para todos.

Aunque puede sostenerse que a largo plazo esa promesa es válida, en el corto plazo la realidad es invariablemente mucho más difícil. El Brexit (la retirada del Reino Unido de la Unión Europea) es solo el ejemplo más reciente.

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