Olivier Douliery/Stringer

全球化断线

纽黑文—全球化在理论上看上去很美,实际却饱受折磨。这就是英国脱欧和美国特朗普崛起的教训。这也是眼下席卷全世界的日益凶残的反华风潮的基础。崇拜自由贸易神坛的人——包括我在内——必须认识这一显而易见的“断线”(disconnect)。

首先要澄清一个真相,关于全球化并没有严格的理论。经济学家拿得出手的最好的理论是十九世纪初大卫·李嘉图所提出的框架:如果一国只生产符合其比较优势(从资源禀赋和工人技能角度讲)的产品,那么,它就能从扩大的跨境贸易中获益。贸易自由化——全球化的圣水——能让所有人获益。

这一许诺从长期看相当靠谱,但在短期,免不了会出现相当艰难的现实。英国退出——英国脱离欧盟——这是这方面最近的例子。

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