Traders sit in front of a board Frank Rumpenhorst/Getty Images

为何金融市场低估风险

坎布里奇—在2017年的大部分时间里,芝加哥期权交易所波动指数(VIX)一直位于过去十年来的最低水平。最近,VIX跌破了9,比2007年次贷危机几乎引爆全球金融体系前夕还要低。看起来,投资者再一次无视世界到底有多危险。

VIX chart

VIX又被称为“恐慌指数”,它测量通过股票指数期权价格表现的金融市场对不确定性的敏感程度,即人们认为股市价值发生重大波动的概率。VIX水平较低表示“冒险”期,投资者“寻找收益率”,减仓美国国债和其他安全港证券,加仓股票、公司债券、不动产和套息交易货币等高风险资产。

我们现在就处于VIX极低的水平,尽管经济面临着众多切实的风险。对于某个给定的月份,这些风险中的每一个都有可能继续保持低位,但保持低位的风险反常地多,这表明有很大的可能至少其中之一会在未来几年中变为现实。

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