Finanzgewinne in Zeiten der Krise

NEW YORK – In den letzten drei Monaten kam es weltweit zu einer kräftigen Erholung der Vermögenspreise: In den Industrieländern stiegen die Aktienpreise um über 30 Prozent und in den meisten Schwellenländern ging es noch steiler nach oben. Die Rohstoffpreise – für Öl, Energie und Metalle – schnellten empor. Die Credit Spreads (die Renditedifferenz zwischen Staatsanleihen und Unternehmensanleihen) haben sich dramatisch verringert, da die Renditen der Staatsanleihen stark angestiegen sind. Die Volatilität (das „Angstmaß“) ist gesunken und der Dollar wurde aufgrund der abflauenden Nachfrage nach sicheren Dollar-Vermögenswerten schwächer.

Aber ist diese Erholung bei den Vermögenswerten auch durch ökonomische Fundamentaldaten begründet? Ist sie nachhaltig? Handelt es sich bei der Erholung der Aktienpreise um eine weitere Bärenmarktrallye oder den Beginn einer Bullenphase?  

Die Wirtschaftsdaten deuten zwar auf eine Verbesserung der Fundamentaldaten hin – die Gefahr einer Beinahe-Depression ist gesunken, die Aussichten, dass die weltweite Rezession mit Jahresende ihre Talsohle erreicht, steigen und das Risikobewusstsein verbessert sich. Es ist aber ebenso klar, dass andere, weniger nachhaltige Faktoren auch eine Rolle spielen. Außerdem bedroht dieser massive Anstieg der Vermögenspreise die Erholung der Weltwirtschaft, die ihren Boden noch nicht erreicht hat. Tatsächlich bleiben viele Risiken einer Marktkorrektur nach unten weiter bestehen.

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