A clerk counting stacks of Chinese yuan and US dollars China photos/Getty Images

完成后危机时代的工作

伦敦——2017年8月9日是法国巴黎银行决定冻结22亿美元货币市场基金决策十周年纪念日。我们这些当时活跃在金融市场上的人还清楚地记得那次事件标志着大萧条后最严重的全球金融危机启动。

许多经济学家和金融观察家认为我们仍未能从那次危机及其背后势力所造成的后果中摆脱。这在一定程度上的确是真的。许多发达经济体仍在实行量化宽松等非常规货币政策,并且生产率和(经过通胀调整后的)实际工资增长似乎大都陷入停滞当中。

但正确看待上述进展的确非常重要。许多人,包括2008年11月的英国女王,仍在不断询问:“为什么没有人能预见这次危机?”事实上,许多金融观察家确曾警告美国的房屋价格上涨不可持续,尤其因为美国消费者国内个人储蓄的匮乏。

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