Janet Yellen Brookings Institution/Flickr

Почему ФРС похоронила монетаризм

ЛОНДОН – Решение Федеральной резервной системы США отложить повышение учётной ставки не должно было стать сюрпризом для тех, кто внимательно следил за заявлениями председателя ФРС Джанет Йеллен. Это решение всего лишь подтвердило, что международные финансовые стрессы ФРС не безразличны, а также то, что подходы ФРС к управлению рисками не меняются – она по-прежнему руководствуется принципом «ниже и дольше». Почему же рынки и СМИ повели себя так, будто действия ФРС (а если точнее, то её бездействие) стало неожиданным?

По-настоящему рынки шокировало не столько решение ФРС сохранить нулевую процентную ставку еще на несколько месяцев, сколько заявление, которое его сопровождало. ФРС призналась, что она совершенно не беспокоится по поводу риска повышения инфляции и собирается снизить безработицу ниже 5% – уровня, который большинство экономистов считают «естественным».

Именно эта связь – между инфляцией и безработицей – лежит в центре всех спорных проблем денежно-монетарной политики и работы центральных банков. Практически все современные экономические модели, в том числе используемые ФРС, основаны на монетаристской теории процентных ставок, провозглашенной в 1967 году Милтоном Фридманом в послании Американской экономической ассоциации, президентом которой он являлся.

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