Fisherman in Brazil

新兴经济体的美联储风险

米兰—美联储在坚守了近十年极低利率后终于提高了其联邦基金利率25个基点。联邦基金利率是所有其他利率的参考利率。这次升息将新利率提高到0.5%,仍然很低,美联储主席耶伦聪明地承诺,未来升息都将是渐进的。从美国经济状态看——实际增长率为2%,劳动力市场吃紧,通胀也没有靠近美联储2%的目标——我认为升息是迈向正常化的合理谨慎的第一步(正常化是指借款人和贷款人之间达成更好的平衡)。

但是,其他央行,特别是产出缺口比美国更大的新兴经济体央行,不会急切地步美联储后尘。这意味着世界将迎来一段货币政策分歧时期,给全球经济带来不确定后果。

在如此形势下,美国利率的微小变动应该不会导致全球资本流的剧烈变动。但是,随着美国货币政策继续向利率正常化迈进,极有可能产生经济和金融连锁反应,特别是货币波动和破坏性流出新兴经济体。

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