¿Salir de la democracia?

Tanto el Presidente George W. Bush como el Primer Ministro Tony Blair necesitan urgentemente una estrategia convincente para salir del Iraq. No cabe duda de que, ahora que sus razones para ir a la guerra se han desmoronado tan espectacularmente y se está debilitando el apoyo interno, quieren salir de allí. Pero ninguno de los dos quiere hacerlo de forma oprobiosa, izando dramáticamente a su último hombre del techo de una embajada mediante un helicóptero.

Tanto Bush como Blair quieren abandonar el Iraq, si no con una victoria, al menos con alguna sensación de "misión cumplida". A juzgar por sus declaraciones recientes, el plan que están preparando es sencillo. En enero, habrá elecciones en el Iraq. Después el gobierno resultante pedirá a las tropas ocupantes que abandonen el país en el plazo -pongamos por caso- de un año. La retirada se iniciará la primavera siguiente.

Mientras que ese plan es sencillo, la realidad no lo es. La primera pregunta molesta es la siguiente: ¿habrá de verdad elecciones el próximo enero? El Primer Ministro Iyad Allawi asegura al mundo que las habrá y el Presidente Bush repite sus palabras. Observadores más neutrales -y, de hecho, las noticias diarias sobre estallidos de bombas, toma de rehenes e "insurgentes"- inspiran dudas sobre esa perspectiva.

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