Новогодняя нерешительность Европы

БЕРЛИН – Закончится ли кризис еврозоны в 2013 году или же он затянется еще на год, а может даже ситуация снова ухудшится? Это не только основной вопрос дальнейшего развития Европейского союза, но и одна из ключевых проблем, влияющих на мировые экономические показатели.

Так как ЕС явно нуждается во внутренних реформах, два внешних политических фактора имеют решающее значение для его перспектив в этом году. Первый – фискальный обрыв Америки, к которому она подтолкнула себя сама и который, если его не избежать, может ввергнуть Соединенные Штаты в рецессию с серьезными последствиями для мировой экономики, а значит и для Европы. Второй – горячая война в Персидском заливе, в которой Израиль и/или США противостоят Ирану с его ядерной программой, что может привести к резкому росту мировых цен на энергоносители.

Любой сценарий в значительной степени усугубит кризис в Европе: взлетевшие цены на нефть или очередная рецессия США может нанести серьезный ущерб даже сильным европейским экономикам, не говоря уже о южных странах, уже находящихся в депрессии. Но даже тогда гуманитарные последствия – особенно в случае очередной войны на Ближнем Востоке – скорее всего, затмят влияние этих сценариев на европейский кризис.

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