Paul Lachine

欧洲的恶性循环

伯克利——欧元危机还没有显示出停止迹象。2011年本应是欧洲领导人最终掌控大局之年,但欧元区的问题反而更加恶化了。希腊危机演变成南欧危机,继而又发展成泛欧洲危机。事实上,到年底的时候,银行和政府一开始为货币联盟的崩溃做准备了。

所有这些都不是不可避免的。相反,这反映出欧洲领导人在中止一对恶性循环方面的无能。

恶性循环之一是公债-银行-公债。对政府是否有能力偿还债务的担忧导致借贷成本飙升、债券价格暴跌。但是,最关键的是,债务危机破坏了人们对手握大量可以债券的欧洲银行的信心。无法借到钱,银行自然也无法发放贷款。经济随之疲软,因此财政整合前景也变得更加虚弱。这造成债券价格进一步下跌,给欧洲银行造成更多的伤害。

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