Tim Brinton

Le débat sur le fédéralisme européen ravivé

BRUXELLES – C’est un vieux débat, mais ravivé par les tensions au sein de la zone euro : une union monétaire peut-elle survivre sans une forme quelconque de fédéralisme budgétaire ?

Cette question est de la plus haute importance pour les investisseurs un peu partout dans le monde. Les détenteurs d’obligations de gouvernements européens ont cru qu’ils savaient ce qu’ils achetaient. Bien sur, il n’y pas de sécurité souveraine de la zone euro. Mais les obligations allemandes, françaises, espagnoles et même les grecques, avaient globalement le même taux d’intérêt, et elles ont donc été considérées comme équivalentes.

Les investisseurs reconnaissent aujourd’hui qu’ils n’avaient pas bien compris ce que ces obligations représentaient – autrement dit, la structure institutionnelle derrière la monnaie européenne. Et si la crise mondiale nous a enseigné quelque chose c’est que si l’on ne comprend pas un produit financier, il ne faut pas l’acheter. Mais si les investisseurs devaient appliquer cette leçon à la lettre, la crise européenne serait loin d’être terminée.

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