欧洲的前车之鉴

欧洲人很容易把他们自己的历史投射到亚洲身上,并把现在的发展看作不过是对欧洲曾经发生过的事情的一种重复,如果不是模仿的话。事实上,亚洲人自己也鼓励这种引诱,东盟就公开宣称他们的目标是越发类似欧盟。

在试图诠释亚洲外交未来时,可以说,欧洲人面临的是一个富人的尴尬。亚洲今天是不是在重新进行着十九世纪后期欧洲的大国平衡游戏,而中国就像是当时的德国呢?或者,南亚通过东盟的发展,将来会不会在远东成为类似欧盟的这样一个组织呢?

这些对比并非是中立的,人们也许会看到,用今天的中国和十九世纪的德国相比较,是对别人的麻烦抱着一种幸灾乐祸的态度,用德语说就是“Schadenfreude”。根据这种观点,亚洲今天也许在经济上发展得很好,但是请不要急着下结论。民族主义上升,中国对权力的欲望,以及其他亚洲国家阻止其野心的企图必然会阻碍经济的发展,从而恢复西方国家独霸全球。

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