Eurobonds oder Pleite

LONDON – Die institutionellen Schwächen der Eurozone liegen glasklar auf dem Tisch. Der Versuch, eine gemeinsame Geldpolitik ohne gemeinsame Finanzverwaltung zu betreiben, ist gescheitert. Wenn Anleger eine italienische Anleihe kaufen, wissen sie nicht, in was sie investieren – garantiert Deutschland für sie oder nicht?

Wir wissen jetzt, dass die kreditwürdigsten Länder für die anderen einstehen müssen, da sonst Attacken wie die auf Griechenland, Irland oder Portugal unvermeidlich sind – und jetzt sind auch Italien und Spanien bedroht. Die Vergemeinschaftung der Schulden allein wird den Euro nicht retten, aber ohne sie kann die Eurozone wahrscheinlich nicht unbeschadet überleben.

Der europäische Gipfel vom 21. Juli war ein kleiner Schritt nach vorn. Die Politiker haben sich darauf geeinigt, die Zinssätze auf Anleihen des Europäischen Finanzstabilisierungsfonds zu senken, und sie haben erkannt, dass die Schuldenlast Griechenlands unhaltbar ist. Aber dies reicht nicht annähernd, um die immer tiefere Krise der Währungsunion aufzuhalten. Für viele Volkswirtschaften der Eurozone – und nicht nur die in der Peripherie – bleiben die Finanzierungskosten unhaltbar hoch. Das Wachstumspotenzial von Italien und Spanien beispielsweise liegt heute im Bereich von etwa 1%, aber die Finanzierungskosten der beiden Länder sind höher als 6%. Die Erträge deutscher Staatsanleihen dagegen sind stark gesunken, was die Finanzierungskosten des öffentlichen und privaten Sektors senkt.

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