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Politics

Het Oosterse Rijk slaat terug naar Europa

Feb 1, 2021 Joschka Fischer

BERLIJN – Nu het presidentschap van Donald Trump verleden tijd is staat hernieuwing van de transatlantische betrekkingen weer op de Europese agenda. Maar er kan geen sprake zijn van een terugkeer zijn naar de oude comfortabele afhankelijkheden uit de Koude Oorlog en de periode daarna toen Amerika – de grote protector – over alle belangrijke veiligheidskwesties besliste en Europa daar als vanzelfsprekend in volgde. Om het transatlantisme te doen herleven zal Europa meer moeten bijdragen aan de collectieve veiligheid, met name binnen de eigen geopolitieke sfeer.

De Europese Unie heeft in haar directe omgeving te maken met drie voormalige wereldmachten die geobsedeerd zijn door hun vergane imperiale glorie: Rusland, Turkije en het Verenigd Koninkrijk. Alle drie hebben zowel heden als in het verleden een unieke relatie met Europa en delen onderlinge overeenkomsten.

Onder president Vladimir Poetin klampt Rusland zich vol weemoed vast aan herinneringen van toen de Sovjet-Unie de status van supermacht had en mondiaal gelijkwaardig aan de VS was. Onder president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan droomt Turkije over een reprise van de geopolitieke en culturele expansie van het Ottomaanse Rijk van de Balkan en de westelijke grens van Centraal-Azië tot het oostelijke Middellandse Zeegebied en de Noord-Afrikaanse kust (Libië) helemaal tot aan de Perzische Golf. En post-brexit-Groot-Brittannië tenslotte zoekt introspectie in zijn zelfopgelegde (en niet zo splendid) isolatie, zelfs alhoewel het dicht bij continentaal Europa blijft staan door de NAVO en sterke historische en culturele banden.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 8 Comments on this article

Peter Schaeffer Feb 14, 2021

"Russia, a nuclear power, is too large and militarily powerful for Europe to manage on its own. Here, the EU will remain dependent on US protection" Europe's economy and population dwarf Russia. If Europe can't defend itself, that is Europe's fault. Expecting American to squander blood and treasure to protect Europe from Russia is absurd.
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Roman Smirnov Feb 4, 2021

Turkey have various interests and capabilities in post soviet area and even inside Russia, after establishing all trade and even sometimes industrial links (a specially in construction and energy projects) using those capabilities it can build around itself area (200m of people) economically comparable, because of scale, with at least eastern part of EU which is in decline at the moment.

To decrease difference in development speed and unify "space" probably more activity on at least "green economy" is needed , more "integration", "inclusive" actions from institutes like EBRD or "Eastern Partnership" (EP) around it , in other case in 10-20 years weakened EU will get another absolutely independent, not transparent and ambitious center of power with natural, market and well structured human resources organized in another then in Europe form.

By the way there are already some kind of cross of EP and Turkeys interests in Caucasus and Turkey seems to be acting without taking in to a note any of EU positions.
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Hikaru Koji Feb 2, 2021

Mr.Ficsher They are striking back simply, because they understand very well how unmerciful European are... 1&2nd World war is the best lesson for them. Be more rational.
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j. von Hettlingen Feb 1, 2021

Joschka Fischer says the EU is facing “three former global powers that are obsessed with their past imperial glory: Russia, Turkey, and now the United Kingdom.” Of the three “difficult neighbours” the post-Brexit Britain is more preoccupied with “searching its soul in self-imposed (and not so splendid) isolation,” than posing a real security threat to the EU, and it will remain “close to continental Europeans through NATO and strong cultural and historical ties.”
Russia under Putin is a resurgent power, adopting a more assertive foreign policy, and seeking to secure a seat at the top table of global diplomacy. Moscow poses a real military threat in Europe since its illegal annexation and occupation of Crimea in 2014. Putin always admired the imperial achievements of Peter the Great, who redefined Russia as a new global power. He also admired Catherine the Great, who extended the Russian empire westwards and southwards.
Joseph Stalin, responsible for the deaths of millions, had been rehabilitated by Putin, who embraces his tactics. In 1940, the Soviet Union annexed Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia under the auspices of the 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. Stalin held referendum in these three Baltic states, and the residents voted overwhelmingly to join the Soviet Union. As there are around one million ethnic Russians living in the Baltics, Putin could call for a referendum, urging them to join the Russian Federation.
According to the author, his greatest worry is Turkey, whose president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan “dreams of reprising the Ottoman Empire’s geopolitical and cultural expansion from the Balkans and the western edges of Central Asia to the eastern Mediterranean and the North African coast (Libya), all the way down to the Persian Gulf.” In recent months a conflict has been brewing between Greece and Turkey in the eastern Mediterranean Sea.
Since the discovery of substantial natural gas deposits below the seabed tensions rose and have “significantly increased the risk of a conflict between NATO members Turkey and Greece, as well as involving EU member state Cyprus,” because they accuse each other of overstepping in an area - waters between Crete and Cyprus - that both countries claim. They have competing ambitions over gas reserves and disagree profoundly over who has rights to key areas of the Eastern Mediterranean.
For decades, Greece and Turkey have been at loggerheads over Cyprus, revolving around an ongoing dispute between Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots, that remains unresolved. In recent years the two countries have quarrelled over migrants crossing into Greece; then Greece was appalled when Turkey decided that the Hagia Sophia museum in Istanbul, for centuries an Orthodox Christian cathedral, be turned back into a mosque.
In Libya Turkey has been supporting the Tripoli government recognised by the UN in a war against General Khalifa Haftar in Benghazi. He is backed by Egypt, France, Russia, and the United Arab Emirates. As a reward Turkey signed a deal with Libya in 2019 that created an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) from the Turkish southern coast to Libya's north-east coast. Egypt said it was illegal, and Greece said it failed to take account of the Greek island of Crete, midway between the two countries.
Last year “a NATO mission to stop arms smuggling along the Libyan coast….precipitated a dangerous confrontation between a French frigate and Turkish navy vessels.” France accused Turkey of breaching the UN arms embargo. Last summer Greece launched military exercises with France, Italy, and Cyprus in the eastern Mediterranean, which Ankara condemned. The conflict is high on the EU agenda. Brussels hopes that Ankara and Athens could resolve the crisis through talks.
According to the author, Turkey, due to its geostrategic location - between Europe, the Middle East, Central Asia, and the Caucasus - “makes it indispensable to the EU.” As a result of the war in Syria the 2015 refugee crisis shows the leverage Turkey has over Europe. He says “Turkey and the EU cannot simply go their own ways. Europe’s markets, investment capacity, and relations with Turkey’s archrivals Russia and Iran make it indispensable to Turkey.”
Erdogan is to blame for much of Turkey’s reckless foreign policy. His political future is not as certain as he wants to project. Hence Turkey’s “long-suspended EU accession process will need to be upheld for the time being; because it remains to be seen who will succeed Erdoğan.” Therefore it is “imperative….that both sides develop peaceful ties outside of EU membership.”
Nevertheless, “Europe must not lose sight of the long game, which inevitably will center on China,” which is already establishing a presence in Iran, and demonstrating that it has the capital, know-how, and technology to project power and influence beyond its borders. Should it succeed in turning the Belt and Road Initiative into a line of geopolitical stepping-stones, it might soon emerge at Europe’s southeastern border in a form that no one in the EU foresaw. Europe cannot possibly want such an outcome. The 'Turkish question' therefore will remain as relevant as ever.”
China has to scale down its Belt-and-Road Initiative, which has cost Beijing much more than anticipated. Besides the coronavirus has also hampered its progress. Much is unclear about the project's future. It may be premature to predict China's influence in Europe's southern backyard.
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