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Turkish Democracy Is Down, But Not Out

Aug 22, 2019 Javier Solana

Relations between Turkey and the West are damaged, but not irreparably, and the same is true of Turkish democracy. Although President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan seems to believe that his country’s geostrategic importance gives him carte blanche, the fact is that Turkey needs the West, and the West needs Turkey.

MADRID – Relations between Turkey and the West are clearly going through an extremely delicate phase. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the Turkish government is pursuing an increasingly volatile foreign policy and presiding over the continued erosion of democratic norms at home. The widening schism between Turkey and its nominal Western allies is further proof of the decay of global cooperation. And yet that process is not irreversible.

The latest setback stems largely from Turkey (a NATO member) purchasing and taking delivery of a Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile system. NATO considers the S-400 to be incompatible with its own systems, and the United States believes its presence will compromise the security of its new F-35 fighter, which Turkey has expressed an interest in acquiring. In retaliation, the US government has expelled Turkey from the F-35 consortium and is contemplating imposing sanctions.

Erdoğan, meanwhile, has done little to calm matters. His threats of military intervention in northeast Syria worry the US, which has tried to buy time with a vague preliminary agreement with Turkey to establish a safe zone. Kurdish forces, which dominate the region in question and played a key role in the fight against the Islamic State, now must hope that US President Donald Trump won’t leave them in the lurch.

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John Stewart Aug 26, 2019

I've just spent 3-4 mins reading this article and I must say what a waste of my time. There is zero new input in this article or a new angle. It just repeats all the things everyone (who has been following Turkey even remotely) knows already. Shame.
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Bernhard Kopp Aug 24, 2019

The " resilient democratic spirit " rests with 10-20 " of the elites and the general population. The state and business elites do not want a liberal democracy on the Western model. Turkey never had an effective segregation of powers, a rule of law, or an independent judiciary. Stifling the free press is just most visible.
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j. von Hettlingen Aug 23, 2019

Javier Solana is right about Turkey losing its support in Europe, just as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan distances himself from the EU – and liberal values. He says relations with Ankara ‘’are damaged, but not irreparably, and the same is true of Turkish democracy.’’ The re-run of the municipal election in June saw huge turnouts in Istanbul and the re-election of Mayor Ekrem İmamoglu, an opposition candidate who defeated Erdogan’s protégé in March. In response the ruling party, Erdogan’s AK, invalidated Imamoglu’s victory.
Turkey, a NATO member, recently received its first delivery of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile system despite strong objection from its allies. In retaliation the US has expelled Turkey from its F-35 programme, whose stealth fighter jets Ankara sought to buy. Erdogan is drifting away from NATO, while not formally leaving it, complicating military cooperation with the Alliance. He has alienated the West in his Syrian policy, seeing ISIS less dangerous than the Syrian Kurds, whom he sees as allies of the Kurdish PKK in Turkey, that seeks to break away and form the Greater Kurdistan.
The author says although Erdogan ‘’seems to believe that his country’s geostrategic importance gives him carte blanche, the fact is that Turkey needs the West, and the West needs Turkey.’’ But Erdogan is simply an undependable ally, interested in alliances only insofar as they serve his personal and national interests. He sees Turkey’s NATO membership as a prestige, but he is not loyal to the Alliance, as little as he is loyal to Vladimir Putin, despite his close ties to Russia.
Erdogan’s purchase of Russian S-4000 may serves to acheive his goal to position Turkey as a military power that can maneuver between Russia and the US and gain strategic profits. His ambition is to cement Turkish influence in the Middle East and Central Asia. Turkey has a military base in Qatar and a training base in Somalia and it plans to set up a military base in Sudan. Its forces have occupied territories in northern Syria and it is active in north Iraq against the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).
For the moment the EU has little appetite to resume accession talks with Turkey, given the “enlargement fatigue” that was ‘’aggravated by the 2008 global financial crisis.’’ The mood was quite different In October 2005, when the then foreign minister, Abdullah Gül, announced that the EU had opened membership talks with Turkey. There was a sense of euphoria among the Turks. But hope was later replaced by despair, as the mercurial Erdogan became authoritarian.
The author says, Turkey’s ‘’attitude toward the West will not become more constructive overnight. But the potential for such a shift is there, as recent – and not so recent – political developments have shown.’’ Due to geography Turkey and the EU ‘’are condemned to get along.’’ He sees ‘’plenty of shared challenges, and thus also opportunities for cooperation.’’ As such are the the discoveries of gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean, which ‘’may yet provide an incentive to restart peace negotiations in Cyprus, while giving a new impetus to EU-Turkish rapprochement.’’
No doubt the approximately 5 to 8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas resources could boost the Mediterranean island’s prospective role as an alternative source of energy to Europe. Yet earlier this year, Turkey embarked on its biggest-ever naval exercise off the coast of Cyprus, a show of force aimed at reinforcing its own right to energy exploration off the island, divided between a majority Greek population in the south and Turks in the breakaway north since the Turkish invasion in 1974.
Cyprus’ newfound place on Europe’s energy map is not without risk. The offshore wealth could reignite tensions with Turkey, which has taken an increasingly aggressive stance over international oil companies drilling in seas whose ownership it contests. Ankara has announced it will soon begin its own drilling off the island. Erdogan has repeatedly warned the foreign energy firms exploring off Cyprus that some of its surrounding waters fall within Turkey’s own jurisdiction.
With talks aimed at reunifying Cyprus at an impasse, revenues from potential reserves will remain a major sticking point. As Turkey’s economy is in deep recession, the greedy Erdogan sees potential revenues from the gas resources off Cyprus as pennies from heaven.
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