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Economics

الاقتصادات الناشئة تحتاج إلى تمويل جديد، وليس تأجيل سداد الديون

May 13, 2020 Mauricio Cárdenas

بوجوتا ــ يدعو كثيرون إلى إصدار قرار رسمي بوقف مؤقت لسداد جميع أقساط الديون المستحقة على الاقتصادات النامية والناشئة، من أجل منع أزمة مرض فيروس كورونا 2019 (كوفيد-19 COVID-19) من إحداث تسونامي من التخلف عن سداد الديون السيادية. وفقا لهذه الحجة، من الأفضل للدائنين أن يوافقوا الآن على تعليق السداد لبعض الوقت، بدلا من الانتظار بسلبية إلى أن يتوقف المدينون عن الوفاء بالتزاماتهم.

ولكن على الرغم من أن التجميد الشامل لسداد الديون قد يساعد العديد من البلدان المنخفضة الدخل التي تفتقر إلى خيار أفضل، فإنه قد يؤدي إلى نتائج عكسية هَـدّامة عندما يتعلق الأمر بالاقتصادات الناشئة التي تحتفظ حاليا بإمكانية الوصول إلى الأسواق المالية. إن ما تحتاج إليه هذه البلدان الآن هو المزيد من تدفقات رؤوس الأموال إلى الداخل، وليس فرض القيود على التدفقات المتجهة إلى الخارج.

يفرض تعليق المدفوعات مشكلتين. فأولا، تحتاج الاقتصادات الناشئة إلى تمويل صاف جديد ــ بعبارة أخرى، قدر أكبر من الموارد مقارنة بما قد يتاح من خلال تجميد التزامات خدمة الديون المستحقة عليها. وثانيا، ستواجه البلدان التي تشارك في توقف السداد إجراءات قانونية من قِـبَـل بعض حاملي الأسهم، مما يعرض قدرتها على الوصول إلى أسواق رأس المال في المستقبل للخطر.

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Enrique Woll Battistini Jun 3, 2020

A CALL FOR PRIVATE-PUBLIC PARTNERSHIPS FOR DEVELOPMENT FOR FOURTH, THIRD, AND SECOND WORLD NATIONS WITH FIRST WORLD NATIONS

April 2, 2009

The new “New World Order”

© Enrique Woll Battistini 2009

Now that the G20 Summit in London is over, it is fair to ask if sufficient attention was given by the leaders of the world's 20 richest countries to the economic and social conditions and prospects for development of the remaining 90%, which as should be noted, are non-OECD members and located mostly in the Southern hemisphere. Why is it considered acceptable that the rich and powerful decide on the fate of the poor, without their consent? Poor does not mean stupid or morally inept. Rather, it means disenfranchised, still, and that, in the new “New World Order” proclaimed by Gordon Brown today, should be abolished forthwith. The grossly unacceptable welfare imbalance between countries in the Southern and Northern hemispheres also must be corrected forthwith. It is a reflection of the gross capitalization imbalances between them, and will cease in short order if G20-supported special action to promote North-South foreign direct investment is undertaken. For such action to be successful, it must occur in the context of for-profit PRIVATE-PUBLIC Partnerships in each of the three main geo-economic North-South scenarios -The Americas, Europe-Africa, and Asia-Oceania. These Partnerships must be comprised of the fittest surviving financial companies in the leading OECD-member country in each scenario, and their counterparts in each non-OECD or developing country in that scenario. In addition, each Partnership must include appropriate multilateral institutions relevant to economic and social development and their counterpart local governmental entities, in a supporting role. Without question, these Partnerships must be for-profit, as stated, and must be led by the private sector. It is not enough to reform the international financial system, abolish banking secrecy, super-inflate the IMF, or to enact a massive world-wide deficit-spending scheme. In The Americas, the Partnership could be called, for instance, "A Partnership for Development with the United States of America" ("Sociedad para el Desarrollo con los Estados Unidos de América"). This idea was first proposed in 1992 to President Clinton, and in 2005 to Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown. Perhaps its time has finally come.

***

https://www.academia.edu/37542273/BBC_-_Have_Your_Say_-_The_new_New_World_Order_-_2009040202
- Enrique Woll Battistini Jun 12, 2020
  
  A FAILED STATE LEADING TO A FAILED GLOBE
  
  The underlying overall purpose of the war of independence the people of the English colonies fought in America against the king of England, his armies, and his empire, was to attain equality for their people; equality among themselves and with their English compatriots. Unfortunately this noble goal has not been achieved. Extreme, and even simply visible inequality, however stable or variable, is indeed the most threatening problem facing humanity today, and will likely remain one even if and when it is finally tamed, and reduced, unless harnessed, and constructively exploited, for the common good.
  
  Disrupting or dismantling working domestic or international financial, economic, or legal institutions, systems, or treaties, that have held the world together for seventy years, and purport to do so indefinitely, without having a clue as to what would take their place, simply because someone feels the impulse to leave his mark in history, would have been unthinkable in 2016. Opting out of the world's largest trading accord, which remains very sound, having been extremely successful, for some sixty years, based on magic thinking, at best, and perhaps merely to gain political notoriety, instead of reforming or restructuring it from within, would also have been considered patently absurd, till less than two years earlier.
  
  Two obvious and urgent constitutional amendments that cannot be deferred any longer, stemming from the reality check that Trump has unwittingly called for at this time of American political, social, and economic chaos he has wrought, are first, the limitation of independent presidential action, and second, the necessity, and obligation, for presidential accountability, not only politically, but legally.
  
  The world the baby boomer generation's grandparents knew as children has been obliterated by a century of recurring monstrous wars, concurrent with exponentially increasing revolutionary scientific and technological discoveries and inventions, and massive economic, social, political, and legal changes which for many signify development. These changes have occurred in a stark and pervasive moral and ethical vacuum, in the context of unconscionable, unsustainable, and monotonically increasing welfare disparities between the rich and the poor. The world as we know it now is at the historical fork between the threshold of recovery and the brink of a new conflagration, indeed at a very promising and very threatening tipping point, and begging for drastic global financial, economic, and social redress, which only the most comprehensive multilateral and national governance reforms that would redefine the social contracts in the East and the West, the North and the South, and between them, could satisfy.
  
  The world is in dire need of Leadership.
  
  ***
  
  https://www.academia.edu/…/PROJECT_SYNDICATE_-_Can_American…
  
  https://www.academia.edu/…/PROJECT_SYNDICATE_-_Saving_the_I…
  
  https://www.academia.edu/…/FACEBOOK_-_On_the_contradictions…
  
  https://www.academia.edu/…/OFA_-_At_the_Brink_of_Recovery_o…
  The coronavirus didn’t break America. It revealed what was already broken.
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Luc Lapointe May 17, 2020

In this blog Former Finance Minister Mauricio Cárdenas put forwards the idea of a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) for countries to use in order to mitigate the impact of the 20 years of not seriously addressing informality gap, infrastructure gap - using poverty indicators that date bask to the 90s as well as claiming positive GDP growth that have not made a dent in seriously addressing the real problems.

Government have shown their inability to create incentives for collaboration. A bunch of knee-jerk reaction in whatever subsidies they could invent themselves while in power. It's like a good cast in a badly directed movie (horror, drama, and comedy - all mixed in one)

The idea of SPVs is definitely the right course for coordinating efforts but leaving such control to political spinning of Presidents, Governors, and Mayors that have a two year office term perspective is the perfect scenario for a financial fiasco. The last thing anyone would want right now is to be elected as the next President of any country where they will inherit the largest mortgage on future generations.

SPV yes but not in the hands of populist government taking selfies handing free grocery bags to upload in their instagram, facebook, and twitter feeds.

Let's focus on the P in SPV - Purpose!
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Kien Choong May 14, 2020

Hi, I understand a relatively straight forward solution is for the IMF to issue more Special Drawing Rights and provide SDR credit lines to the countries that need them. The SDRs can be exchanged for hard currency. (China may also be willing to exchange some of its US dollar held in official reserves for the SDRs.)
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Shann Turnbull May 14, 2020

The IMF, MDBs or Moratoriums are not required. Only the knowledge of how any economy can create self-financing, self-liquidating money that was spontaneously issued privately in the Great Depression. Such locally created self-liquidating money was described as “Stamp Scrip”. Today it would be issued digitally to avoid government deficits, debt, taxes or inflation. Refer to my articles: “Rebuilding infected economies: Without deficits, debts and taxes”, 14 April 2020, The European Financial Review, https://www.europeanfinancialreview.com/rebuilding-infected-economies-without-deficits-debt-or-taxes/ and ‘Reforming money to rescue economies and the planet’, 8 May, Online Opinion, https://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=20885
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Juan Pablo Celis May 14, 2020

Great proposal that calls for an international coordination of macroeconomic policies. If the SPVs are well designed, these could lead creditors and debtors to a win-win situation. It prevents both large haircuts for the former and capital outflows (sudden stops can be very costly) for the latter.
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الاقتصادات الناشئة تحتاج إلى تمويل جديد، وليس تأجيل سداد الديون

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الاقتصادات الناشئة تحتاج إلى تمويل جديد، وليس تأجيل سداد الديون

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