Michael Spence, a Nobel laureate in economics, is Professor of Economics Emeritus and a former dean of the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University. He is Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Senior Adviser to General Atlantic, and Chairman of the firm’s Global Growth Institute. He serves on the Academic Committee at Luohan Academy, and chairs the Advisory Board of the Asia Global Institute. He was Chairman of the independent Commission on Growth and Development, an international body that from 2006-10 analyzed opportunities for global economic growth, and is the author of The Next Convergence: The Future of Economic Growth in a Multispeed World (Macmillan Publishers, 2012).
发自米兰——就在美国雷曼兄弟投资银行破产触发一场席卷全球经济的金融危机之前,世界银行增长与发展委员会发布了一份对新兴经济体增长战略的评估报告,希望能从以往的研究和经验中总结教训。一晃十年,许多——甚至算不上大多数——这些教训依然未曾受到重视。
在新兴经济体中,持续的中速或高速GDP增长是推动发展和提高收入的关键。当然,危机无可避免地会产生一些需要较长恢复期的重大挫折,大大减少了收入和财富的增长。但十年显然是太过漫长了,而经验表明新兴经济体应该做的与它们一直在做的事情之间的差距仍然巨大。
其中一些国家实现了持续的中高速增长,但它们依赖于高水平的公共和私人投资,而且主要由国内储蓄来进行融资。相比之下,持续存在大额经常账户赤字会导致经济变得脆弱,甚至往往会随着外部金融条件的变化而导致崩溃。借入外国硬通货币尤其危险,因为一旦本地货币贬值就可能引发负债激增。因此尽管对借债的需要程度取决于增长,因为GDP的强劲和弹性增长会降低杠杆率,但新兴经济体依然得努力限制债务水平。
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