2014年的中东安全

耶路撒冷—中东是一个让预测死无葬身之地的地方。而该地区当下的动荡局势让预测事态发展变得更加棘手了。但是,2013年以来日益明确的是,中东危机的主要根源不是“文明的冲突”,而是以逊尼派-什叶派分歧为核心的伊斯兰教内部冲突。

这场斗争的平民伤亡数字令人震惊。阿富汗、埃及、伊拉克、利比亚和叙利亚伤亡数字之和已经达到了好几十万——也许是1948年以来的以色列-巴勒斯坦总伤亡数字的十倍——另有数百万人过着悲惨的难民生活。

如今,阿拉伯之春已经不再火热,中东的2014年前景看起来十分黯淡。我们仍能看到一些机会,2014年也必将有更多的机会涌现。但抓住这些机会需要全球领导和战略上的明确、详细和果断——这些在2013年都无从寻找。

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