Paul Lachine

Египет в качестве миротворца?

ТЕЛЬ-АВИВ – Переговоры по прекращению огня должны быть начаты до того, как нынешние боевые действия между Израилем и ХАМАСом обострятся еще больше. Разумеется, как и в случае с предыдущими прекращениями огня, любое перемирие может носить временный характер, поскольку оно неизбежно подрывается силами, которые увековечивают вооруженный конфликт между Израилем и ХАМАСом. Однако, с учетом того что Сирия поглощена гражданской войной, а весь Ближний Восток на данный момент находится в шатком положении, прекращение огня является необходимым как для спасения жизней, так и для сохранения непростого состояния мира в регионе.

Многое зависит от Египта, поскольку он находится в наилучшем положении, чтобы стать посредником к заключению соглашения. Но оценка перспектив любых дипломатических усилий требует понимания перспектив и планов основных действующих сторон.

Израиль не имеет всеобъемлющей политики в отношении сектора Газа. Бывший премьер-министр Ариэль Шарон сделал смелый шаг, выведя оттуда войска и демонтировав в одностороннем порядке израильские поселения. Но он заболел раньше, чем эти меры смогли перерасти в более обширные усилия по решению палестинского вопроса.

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