Paul Lachine

Арабские религиозные войны

МАДРИД – Во всем арабском мире разворачивается борьба между двумя основными историческими силами, религией и секуляризмом. Это такое противостояние между Цезарем и Богом, на решение которого Европе понадобились века. Будущее арабского Ближнего Востока решится в борьбе между суннитскими повстанцами Сирии, которых во всем регионе поддерживают саудовские ваххабиты – сторонники религиозного фундаментализма – и светским режимом Баас; между фундаменталистским движением «Хамас» и светской организацией ООП, а также между молодой светской оппозицией Египта, закаленной в протестах на площади Тахрир, и «Братьями-мусульманами» и радикальными салафитами.

До сих пор арабские бунты подтверждали предположение, что, учитывая общественную структуру большинства арабских стран, свержение светской автократии непременно откроет дверь исламской демократии. Мы увидели эту тенденцию в действии в Алжире в начале 1990-х годов, где Исламский фронт спасения победил в первом круге парламентских выборов (что способствовало отмене второго тура); в победе партии «Хамас» на выборах в Палестине в 2006 году и, совсем недавно, в демократическом приходе «Братьев-мусульман» к власти в Египте.

И в Алжире, и в Египте светские силы не смогли сдержать рост политического ислама, который может быть остановлен только с помощью военного переворота. Военный переворот в Алжире спровоцировал кровавую гражданскую войну, которая, по некоторым оценкам, унесла более 200 000 жизней.

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