Paul Lachine

Les guerres de religion arabes

MADRID – Partout dans le monde arabe se déroule à présent une lutte entre deux grandes forces historiques, la religion et la laïcité. C'est le type de bataille entre César et Dieu que l'Europe a mis des siècles à résoudre. L'avenir du Moyen-Orient arabe se décidera dans la lutte entre les insurgés sunnites syriens, soutenus dans toute la région par les wahhabites saoudiens (les patrons de l'intégrisme religieux) et son régime Baas laïque, entre fondamentalistes du Hamas et l'OLP laïque en Palestine; et entre l'opposition des jeunes laïcs en Egypte issue des manifestations de la place Tahrir et les Frères musulmans et les salafistes radicaux.

Jusqu'à présent, les révoltes arabes ont justifié l'hypothèse selon laquelle compte tenu de la structure de la plupart des sociétés arabes, renverser les autocraties laïques revient inévitablement à ouvrir la porte à des démocraties islamiques. Nous avons vu se dérouler cette dynamique en Algérie au début des années 1990 avec la victoire au premier tour le du Front Islamique du Salut aux élections législatives (ce qui a incité l'annulation du second tour), avec la victoire électorale du Hamas en Palestine en 2006 et plus récemment avec la montée démocrate des Frères musulmans au pouvoir en Egypte.

En Algérie et en Egypte, les forces laïques ont été incapables d'endiguer la montée de l'Islam politique, qui ne pourra être écourtée que par un coup d'Etat militaire. Le coup d'Etat militaire algérien a finalement marqué le début d'une guerre civile sanglante estimée à plus de 200 000 morts.

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