Divergence économique et politiques désordonnées

LAGUNA BEACH – Notre monde se caractérise de plus en plus par sa divergence – sur le plan de la performance économique, de la politique monétaire, et par conséquent des marchés financiers. La divergence globale contribue d’ores et déjà à la volatilité du marché boursier, au déclin sans précédent des obligations gouvernementales des économies les plus avancées, ainsi qu’à d’importantes fluctuations monétaires. Rien n’indique par ailleurs quelque atténuation de cette tendance, qui exerce ainsi une pression croissante sur des systèmes politiques déjà éprouvés.

Les économies les plus importantes de la planète, en termes systémiques, peuvent être classées en quatre catégories. Un premier groupe réunit des pays tels que l’Inde ou les États-Unis, au sein desquels la reprise économique s’accentue, leur permettant de surmonter les déséquilibres financiers. Le deuxième groupe peut être représenté par la Chine, qui connaît un atterrissage en douceur sur une trajectoire de croissance qui, bien qu’ayant ralenti ces dernières années, demeure suffisamment dynamique pour sous-tendre une progression continue en direction d’une stabilité financière ainsi que du statut de pays à revenu élevé.

Le troisième groupe réunit un certain nombre d’économies qui – à l’instar du Brésil, de plusieurs pays de la zone euro, ou encore du Japon – enregistrent une croissance insuffisante,  et font face à des risques baissiers. Enfin, le quatrième groupe rassemble plusieurs électrons libres sur le plan économique et financier, tels que la Grèce et la Russie – pays aussi bien susceptibles de parvenir à rétablir croissance et stabilité financière que d’imploser soudainement, et de propager une onde de choc à l’Europe toute entière et au-delà.

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