中东的繁荣之弧

普林斯顿——令人震惊的暴力和不断固化的分歧令埃及在内战边缘战栗,中东或北非已经很难传出真正令人振奋的消息。叙利亚痛苦持续不断;致命的宗派攻击更频繁地在伊拉克上演;黎巴嫩脆弱的和平进程一再受挫;难民潮席卷约旦;利比亚民兵组织活动猖獗、政局扭曲;土耳其这颗伊斯兰民主之星也逐渐黯淡。

即便面对一连串的棘手事件,美国国务卿约翰·克里仍决定将解决以巴问题作为当前的重点。“现在不解决、就永远也解决不了”的理由几乎铁定成立。但还有另一个理由同样具有说服力(尽管这项理由往往被人忽视):以色列-巴勒斯坦-约旦经济区可以激发整个地区的增长和发展潜力。

比尔·克林顿的竞选主管詹姆斯·卡维尔1992年曾说过一句不朽名言,“傻瓜,经济才是根本问题。”中东和北非经济无法带来民众所需繁荣的惨淡失败不断将人们推上街头。这并非唯一的因素,但食品价格上涨助推了2011年革命热情从一小撮积极份子扩展到普通民众,今年6月的情况同样如此,针对前总统穆罕默德·穆尔西最常见的不满并不是意识形态,而是普通埃及民众的需求得不到关注。

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