Paul Lachine

Pryč s eurozónou

NEW YORK – Krize eurozóny podle všeho vrcholí, Řecko je na pokraji krachu a potupného odchodu z měnové unie a Itálie je na krok od ztráty přístupu na trh. Problémy eurozóny jsou ale mnohem hlubší. Jsou strukturální a vážně postihují přinejmenším čtyři další ekonomiky: Irsko, Portugalsko, Kypr a Španělsko.

Země PIIGS (Portugalsko, Irsko, Itálie, Řecko a Španělsko) byly v eurozóně během minulé dekády spotřebitelem první i poslední instance, utrácely víc, než kolik získávaly v příjmech, a hospodařily s čím dál většími schodky běžného účtu. Jádro eurozóny (Německo, Nizozemsko, Rakousko a Francie) přitom představovalo producenta první a poslední instance, utrácelo míň, než kolik získávalo v příjmech, a hospodařilo s čím dál většími přebytky běžného účtu.

Tyto externí nevyváženosti také od roku 2002 rozdmýchávala síla eura a divergence reálných směnných kurzů a konkurenční schopnosti uvnitř eurozóny. Jednotkové mzdové náklady v Německu a v dalších částech jádra poklesly (neboť růst mezd byl pomalejší než růst produktivity), což vedlo k reálné devalvaci a růstu přebytků běžného účtu, kdežto v PIIGS (a na Kypru) docházelo k opaku, což vyvolalo reálné zhodnocování a rozšiřující se deficity běžného účtu. V Irsku a Španělsku se zhroutily soukromé úspory a bublina bytové výstavby vyvolala nadměrnou spotřebu, zatímco příčinou zjitření externích nevyvážeností v Řecku, Portugalsku, na Kypru a v Itálii byly nadměrné fiskální schodky.

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