Rebajar el peso de la deuda

LONDRES - Casi cuatro años después del inicio de la crisis financiera global, muchos se preguntan por qué la recuperación económica está tomando tanto tiempo. De hecho, su lentitud ha confundido incluso a los expertos. De acuerdo con el Fondo Monetario Internacional, la economía mundial debería haber crecido un 4,4% en 2011 y hacerlo un 4,5% en 2012. En realidad, las últimas cifras del Banco Mundial indican que el crecimiento llegó apenas al 2,7% en 2011 y se desacelerará este año hasta el 2,5%, cifra que bien puede ser necesario revisar a la baja.

Dos posibles razones pueden explicar la discrepancia entre las previsiones y los resultados. O bien los daños causados ​​por la crisis financiera fueron más graves de lo que se pensó, o la receta económica prescrita fue menos eficaz de lo que los políticos creyeron.

De hecho, la gravedad de la crisis bancaria se percibió con rapidez. En 2008-9 se implementaron enormes planes de estímulo, impulsados por Estados Unidos y China, en coordinación con el Reino Unido y con el apoyo reticente de Alemania. Bajaron los tipos de interés, los bancos insolventes fueron rescatados, se dio luz verde a la impresión de dinero, se redujeron los impuestos y aumentó el gasto público. Algunos países devaluaron sus monedas.

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