Nesázejme na rychlé zotavení americké ekonomiky

Jak je na tom americká ekonomika? Jednou přijde zpráva, že americká recese každou chvíli skončí, a hned vzápětí přijde další zpráva, která tu první vyvrátí. Tato nejednoznačnost se odráží i v současné měnové politice Federálního rezervního úřadu, který úrokové sazby nezvyšuje ani nesnižuje a chová se ,,neutrálně". O jakési nejistotě svědčí také výkyvy na akciovém trhu.

Debaty o americké ekonomice nám zde moc nepomohou, poněvadž si vesměs kladou špatnou otázku: kdy recese začala a skončila. Recese jsou obvykle definovány propadem HDP. Ve skutečnosti však jde o rozdíl mezi potenciálem ekonomiky a jejím skutečným výkonem.

Dle této definice zůstane výkon americké ekonomiky pravděpodobně skličující. Zvýšení měřené produktivity znamená, že tempo růstu potenciálu ekonomiky se teď pohybuje někde mezi 3,5 až 4 procenty ročně. (V metodě korekce cenových změn došlo ovšem k jistým úpravám, takže to, co dnes měříme jako 4 procenta, je podle dřívějších způsobů měření podstatně nižší číslo.)

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