Regreso al debate de la contención

PARÍS – Al principio de la Guerra Fría, hubo en Estados Unidos un intenso debate entre los partidarios de contener al comunismo y quienes querían forzarlo a retroceder. ¿Era suficiente limitar las ambiciones de la Unión Soviética, o se necesitaba una postura más agresiva, a veces descrita como “contención reforzada”?

La reciente controversia entre el presidente de Estados Unidos, Barack Obama, y su ex secretaria de Estado (y posible sucesora), Hillary Clinton, parece revivir ese debate. Pero, ¿son sus términos de referencia útiles ahora que Occidente se enfrenta a los desafíos simultáneos del Estado Islámico en Medio Oriente y de una Rusia revisionista? ¿Hacen bien los líderes occidentales en suponer que los dos desafíos son distintos, de modo que con Rusia basta la contención, mientras que una política de reversión es imprescindible en el caso del Estado Islámico?

La idea sería que Occidente necesita a Rusia tanto como Rusia necesita a Occidente, mientras que lo último que querría alguien es tener un santuario para fanáticos islamistas en el corazón de Medio Oriente. Por eso, para convencer a Rusia de cambiar de política hay que apelar a una combinación de sanciones económicas, unidad estratégica y compromiso diplomático; en cambio, las ambiciones del Estado Islámico no se pueden contener, de modo que hay que suprimirlas.

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