¿Ganó Hizbulah?

Inmediatamente después de terminada la Guerra de Octubre de 1973, el mundo árabe estaba alborozado, ya que el cruce del Canal de Suez por el ejército egipcio y la ofensiva siria en los Altos del Golán destruyeron el mito de la invencibilidad israelí En Israel hubo duras críticas a los jefes políticos y militares, a quienes se culpó de la pérdida de 3.000 soldados en una guerra que terminó sin una victoria clara. La Primera Ministro Golda Meir, el Ministro de Defensa Moshe Dayan, el Jefe del Alto Mando de las Fuerzas de Defensa de Israel (FDI) David Elazar y el jefe de la inteligencia militar quedaron desprestigiados y pronto fueron reemplazados.

Tuvo que pasar tiempo para que se afianzara un sentido de la proporción, irónicamente impulsado primero que nadie por los gobernantes de Egipto y Siria. Mientras los comentaristas en Israel y en todo el mundo seguían lamentando o intentando reafirmar la supremacía militar perdida de Israel, tanto el Presidente egipcio Anwar Sadat como su contraparte sirio Hafez Al-Assad reconocieron con entereza que sus países habían estado más cerca de una derrota catastrófica que en 1967, y que era imperativo evitar otra guerra. Esto condujo a la paz de Sadat y a la tregua de Assad en 1974 sobre los Altos del Golán, que nunca ha sido violada desde entonces.

Es fácil leer en retrospectiva la guerra de 1973. Israel había sido atacada por sorpresa, ya que la buena información de inteligencia se malinterpretó en un clima de arrogante exceso de confianza. La línea de frente había quedado casi sin protección y se vio sobrepasada en su mayor parte. Los egipcios tenían un excelente plan de guerra y lucharon bien, y los tanques sirios avanzaron con decisión, lanzando una ola de ataques tras otra durante tres días y noches. En 48 horas, Israel parecía a punto de sufrir una derrota en ambos frentes.

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