真主党赢了吗?

1973年十月战争刚刚结束时,埃及渡过苏伊士运河以及叙利亚横扫格兰高地令阿拉伯世界为此而兴奋不已。以色列国内的政治和军事领袖受到了严厉的批判,他们损失了3,000名士兵的性命,却没有赢得决定性的胜利。以色列总理戈尔达·梅厄(Golda Meir)、国防部长莫夏·达扬(Moshe Dayan)、以色列国防军(IDF)参谋长大卫•埃拉扎尔(David Elazar),以及军事情报部门负责人无一例外的名誉扫地,很快就被迫递交了辞呈。

冷静的思考在此之后才开始占据上风,具有讽刺意味的是,始作俑者却是埃及和叙利亚的领袖。在以色列和世界各地的评论员们还在为以色列失去军事霸权而兀自哀恸或振奋的时候,埃及总统安瓦尔·萨达特(Anwar Sadat)和叙利亚总统哈菲兹· 阿萨德(Hafez Al-Assad)清醒地认识到自己的国家比1967年更接近毁灭,因此避免战争再度爆发势在必行。这样的看法导致了萨达特的和平和1974年阿萨德的格兰高地停火协议,自此之后,这两国与以色列之间的停火一直延续至今。

在回忆中解读1973年战争要容易得多。以色列在毫无准备的情况下仓促应战,当时过于自大的傲慢气氛影响了对情报的准确解读。前线地区几乎毫无防备,很多地区被彻底占领。埃及人制定了卓越的计划并且英勇作战,叙利亚坦克也奋勇前进,一轮接一轮的攻势持续了整整三天。48小时内,以色列在两条战线上似乎都处在崩溃的边缘。

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