Drain at construction site

Cerrar el drenaje de capital de los países en desarrollo

NUEVA YORK – Los países en desarrollo se preparan para atravesar por una importante desaceleración este año. De acuerdo con el informe de la ONU Situación y perspectivas de la economía mundial 2016, el crecimiento de estos países solamente llegó a un promedio del 3,8% en el 2015 – la tasa más baja desde la crisis financiera mundial  del año 2009 y que sólo se iguala, en este siglo, a la tasa del año 2001, que fue un año en el que primó la recesión. Además, es importante tomar en cuenta que la desaceleración en China y las recesiones profundas en Brasil y la Federación de Rusia sólo explican parte de la amplia caída del crecimiento.

Es cierto, la demanda descendente de la China con respecto a los recursos naturales (misma que da cuenta de casi la mitad de la demanda mundial de metales básicos) ha tenido mucho que ver con las fuertes caídas de estos precios, caídas que han afectado fuertemente a muchos países en desarrollo y a muchas economías emergentes en América Latina y África. De hecho, el informe de la ONU enumera 29 economías que probablemente se verán gravemente afectadas por la desaceleración de China. Además, el colapso de los precios del petróleo en más de un 60% desde julio de 2014 ha socavado las perspectivas de crecimiento de los exportadores de petróleo.

La verdadera preocupación, sin embargo, no es solamente la caída de los precios de las materias primas, sino que también las salidas masivas de capital. Durante el período 2009-2014, los países en desarrollo recibieron colectivamente una entrada neta de capital de $2,2 millones de millones de dólares, en parte debido a la flexibilización cuantitativa en las economías avanzadas, que empujó a sus tasas de interés a situarse en cerca de cero.

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