Drain at construction site

Wie kann der Kapitalabfluss aus den Schwellenländern gestoppt werden?

NEW YORK – Die Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländer stehen in diesem Jahr vor einer erheblichen wirtschaftlichen Verlangsamung. Laut des UN-Berichts über die Lage und Aussichten der Weltwirtschaft 2016 sind sie 2015 durchschnittlich nur um 3,8% gewachsen – die niedrigste Quote seit der globalen Finanzkrise im Jahr 2009. Nur im Rezessionsjahr 2001 war sie noch niedriger. Und erwähnenswert ist dabei auch, dass der Rückgang in China und die schweren Rezessionen in Russland und Brasilien nur einen Teil des allgemeinen Wachstumsrückgangs darstellen.

Viele Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländer in Lateinamerika und Afrika wurden hart vom Rückgang der Rohstoffpreise getroffen, und natürlich hatte die sinkende Rohstoffnachfrage in China (einem Land, das fast die Hälfte der weltweiten Nichtedelmetallproduktion verbraucht) viel mit diesem starken Preisverfall zu tun. In der Tat werden im UN-Bericht 29 Volkswirtschaften aufgelistet, die von der Flaute in China wahrscheinlich negativ betroffen sind. Und der Zusammenbruch der Ölpreise seit Juli 2014 um über 60% hat die Wachstumsaussichten der Ölexporteure unterminiert.

Echte Sorgen bereiten allerdings nicht nur die fallenden Rohstoffpreise, sondern vor allem die massiven Kapitalabflüsse. Zwischen 2009 und 2014 konnten sich die Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländer über einen Nettokapitalzufluss von insgesamt 2,2 Billionen Dollar freuen. Ein Grund dafür waren die quantitativen Lockerungen in den Industriestaaten, die die Zinssätze in die Nähe von Null drückten.

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